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Scoring-Zone Equity: TD equity from opportunity

Red-zone and goal-line opportunity share, with the TD rate regressed toward the positional mean: TD equity from sticky opportunity, not noisy past touchdowns.

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How we read it

RZ share: sticky opportunity

The player's share of his team's red-zone and goal-line carries and targets. Scoring-zone opportunity is sticky and predictive; past touchdowns are noisy.

xTD rate: regressed to the mean

TD rate per scoring-zone opportunity, regressed toward the positional mean: TD equity from the looks he owns, not the touchdowns that already bounced his way.

Buy / Sell: equity vs results

Heavy scoring-zone share with light actual TDs is a buy; a hot TD rate above the opportunity is a sell. In-line means the scores match the looks.

Scoring-zone leaders · 2025 through week 18

Who owns the looks inside the 20

Real nflverse play-by-play, filtered to the red zone and goal line. We read TD equity from OPPORTUNITY share (sticky), regress conversion rate toward the positional mean, and flag high-share/low-TD as buy and high-TD/low-share as sell. Context, not a pick.

Pos40 rows

#
1	C.McCaffrey	SF	RB	76	26	25	51%	17	17%	17%	Buy
2	J.Taylor	IND	RB	75	6	26	42%	16	20%	19%	Buy
3	A.Jeanty	LV	RB	36	10	12	41%	7	15%	16%	Buy
4	D.Henry	BAL	RB	64	2	27	39%	10	15%	15%	Buy
5	J.Gibbs	DET	RB	53	15	12	36%	14	21%	20%	Buy
6	J.Jacobs	GB	RB	54	7	20	36%	13	21%	21%	Buy
7	B.Robinson	ATL	RB	37	14	14	36%	8	16%	16%	Buy
8	S.Barkley	PHI	RB	45	8	17	34%	6	11%	12%	Buy
9	C.Brown	CIN	RB	38	12	17	34%	11	22%	21%	Buy
10	J.Williams	DAL	RB	55	13	24	33%	12	18%	18%	Buy
11	Z.Charbonnet	SEA	RB	52	3	20	32%	11	20%	19%	Buy
12	D.Achane	MIA	RB	33	12	6	32%	6	13%	14%	Buy
13	K.Williams	LA	RB	55	10	18	31%	13	20%	19%	Buy
14	T.Etienne	JAX	RB	54	10	13	31%	10	16%	16%	Buy
15	J.Cook	BUF	RB	56	3	17	30%	8	14%	14%	Buy
16	Q.Judkins	CLE	RB	34	1	13	28%	6	17%	17%	Buy
17	J.Warren	PIT	RB	41	5	15	28%	5	11%	12%	Buy
18	R.Dowdle	CAR	RB	35	5	9	27%	6	15%	15%	Buy
19	B.Hall	NYJ	RB	24	9	5	26%	2	6%	9%	Buy
20	K.Hunt	KC	RB	38	6	16	25%	9	21%	20%	Buy
21	K.Gainwell	PIT	RB	24	18	11	25%	7	17%	17%	Buy
22	W.Marks	HOU	RB	34	8	11	25%	5	12%	13%	Buy
23	T.Henderson	NE	RB	36	4	9	24%	6	15%	15%	Buy
24	T.Allgeier	ATL	RB	33	1	10	24%	7	21%	20%	Buy
25	D.Swift	CHI	RB	40	1	14	24%	8	20%	19%	Buy
26	K.Monangai	CHI	RB	38	3	12	24%	5	12%	13%	Buy
27	R.Harvey	DEN	RB	29	11	13	23%	9	23%	21%	Buy
28	K.Walker	SEA	RB	35	4	8	23%	4	10%	12%	Buy
29	J.Croskey-Merritt	WAS	RB	33	1	13	23%	7	21%	20%	Buy
30	C.Rodriguez	WAS	RB	33	1	14	23%	6	18%	17%	Buy
31	T.McBride	ARI	WR/TE	0	36	7	22%	11	31%	29%	In-line
32	T.Pollard	TEN	RB	21	1	5	22%	3	14%	15%	Buy
33	D.Montgomery	DET	RB	37	3	18	21%	6	15%	15%	Buy
34	J.Mason	MIN	RB	29	1	7	21%	6	20%	19%	Buy
35	R.Stevenson	NE	RB	28	6	13	20%	6	18%	17%	Buy
36	K.Vidal	LAC	RB	26	6	7	20%	3	9%	11%	Buy
37	O.Hampton	LAC	RB	29	2	9	19%	4	13%	14%	Buy
38	A.St. Brown	DET	WR/TE	1	35	9	19%	10	28%	27%	In-line
39	R.White	TB	RB	19	11	9	19%	4	13%	14%	Buy
40	C.Hubbard	CAR	RB	20	6	5	18%	2	8%	10%	Buy

Data via nflverse (nflverse-data), licensed CC BY 4.0. How we source data

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