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Scoring-Zone Equity: touchdown chances from opportunity

Share of red-zone and goal-line looks, with the touchdown rate pulled back toward the positional average. Scores the looks a player owns, not the touchdowns that already bounced his way.

How we read it

RZ share: sticky opportunity

The player's share of his team's red-zone and goal-line carries and targets. Scoring-zone opportunity is sticky and predictive; past touchdowns are noisy.

xTD rate: regressed to the mean

TD rate per scoring-zone opportunity, regressed toward the positional mean: TD equity from the looks he owns, not the touchdowns that already bounced his way.

Buy / Sell: equity vs results

Heavy scoring-zone share with light actual TDs is a buy; a hot TD rate above the opportunity is a sell. In-line means the scores match the looks.

for PRO members only

Scoring-Zone Equity: touchdown chances from opportunity

Scoring-Zone Equity: touchdown chances from opportunity is a Pro-tier analytics engine. This is the same data served by the premium /api/intelligence/scoring-zone endpoint, gated for Pro and Elite members.

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Data via nflverse (nflverse-data), licensed CC BY 4.0. How we source data

More engines & APIs5 engines without a standalone boardExtra feeds and player boards. Expand to browse them.

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Turns a posted roster into real add / drop / hold decisions (pairs with league sync).

Graded Pool

Combines the player grade, expected points, team environment, and passing signal into one ranked pool that feeds every fantasy tool.

QB Consensus

Two public QB ratings side by side. When they disagree, we show it instead of averaging it away.

Rushing Efficiency

Yards over expected per carry, next to volume and stacked-box context: bell-cow, buy-low, or volume-dependent.

Receiving Opportunity

Air yards and target share combined into one opportunity score, with a clear buy / sell read.