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Expected Fantasy Points — the opportunity backbone

What a player's real usage should have produced — expected points from the carries, targets, air yards, and field position he actually saw, independent of whether the ball bounced his way.

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How we read it

xFP — expected, not actual: ffverse's ff_opportunity models the fantasy points a usage profile should yield. Expected points persist far better than actual points, which swing on touchdown luck.
Buy-low — expected outruns actual: When the expected percentile sits well above the actual percentile, the usage says the production is coming. Buy-low before it corrects.
Sell-high — actual outruns expected: When actual outruns expected, the player is running hot on conversion luck. Sell-high before it regresses. In-line means the points are earned by the opportunity.

Expected-points leaders · 2025 through week 22

What the usage should have produced

Expected fantasy points from ffverse ff_opportunity — what a player's real usage should have produced. We surface expected-vs-actual as buy-low / sell-high. The opportunity backbone, not a point projection.

Pos120 rows

#
1	Christian McCaffrey	SF	RB	19	470.9	24.8	456.4	-14.5	100	100	In-line
2	Matthew Stafford	LA	QB	20	414.0	20.7	415.3	+1.3	99	96	In-line
3	Drake Maye	NE	QB	21	397.9	18.9	426.9	+29.0	98	99	In-line
4	Trevor Lawrence	JAX	QB	18	385.9	21.4	359.6	-26.4	96	94	In-line
5	Puka Nacua	LA	WR	19	382.8	20.1	452.6	+69.8	100	100	In-line
6	Caleb Williams	CHI	QB	19	380.4	20.0	357.9	-22.5	94	93	In-line
7	Josh Allen	BUF	QB	18	375.9	20.9	417.2	+41.3	93	98	In-line
8	Dak Prescott	DAL	QB	17	354.8	20.9	313.8	-41.0	91	88	In-line
9	Bo Nix	DEN	QB	18	348.4	19.4	330.9	-17.5	89	91	In-line
10	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA	WR	20	343.7	17.2	408.8	+65.1	99	99	In-line
11	Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET	WR	17	327.9	19.3	324.0	-3.9	99	99	In-line
12	Bijan Robinson	ATL	RB	17	327.6	19.3	370.8	+43.2	99	99	In-line
13	Justin Herbert	LAC	QB	17	322.1	18.9	300.9	-21.2	88	84	In-line
14	Jalen Hurts	PHI	QB	17	312.8	18.4	315.2	+2.4	86	89	In-line
15	Ja'Marr Chase	CIN	WR	16	306.5	19.2	313.6	+7.1	98	98	In-line
16	Jonathan Taylor	IND	RB	17	305.9	18.0	362.3	+56.5	98	97	In-line
17	Jahmyr Gibbs	DET	RB	17	305.5	18.0	366.6	+61.1	97	98	In-line
18	Trey McBride	ARI	TE	17	301.9	17.8	315.9	+14.0	99	99	In-line
19	Davante Adams	LA	WR	17	301.7	17.7	258.4	-43.3	97	96	In-line
20	Patrick Mahomes	KC	QB	14	297.9	21.3	285.7	-12.3	84	81	In-line
21	Sam Darnold	SEA	QB	20	294.3	14.7	293.7	-0.6	83	83	In-line
22	Kyren Williams	LA	RB	20	291.8	14.6	320.6	+28.8	96	94	In-line
23	Baker Mayfield	TB	QB	17	287.8	16.9	277.9	-9.9	81	80	In-line
24	James Cook	BUF	RB	19	283.3	14.9	323.4	+40.1	95	96	In-line
25	Saquon Barkley	PHI	RB	17	277.9	16.3	248.4	-29.5	94	88	In-line
26	Jared Goff	DET	QB	17	276.4	16.3	302.6	+26.2	80	86	In-line
27	Chase Brown	CIN	RB	17	275.8	16.2	280.3	+4.5	93	93	In-line
28	De'Von Achane	MIA	RB	16	266.0	16.6	322.1	+56.1	92	95	In-line
29	Javonte Williams	DAL	RB	16	263.0	16.4	242.8	-20.2	91	85	In-line
30	George Pickens	DAL	WR	17	260.8	15.3	289.9	+29.1	97	97	In-line
31	Chris Olave	NO	WR	16	256.3	16.0	268.0	+11.7	96	97	In-line
32	Travis Etienne	JAX	RB	18	255.3	14.2	276.5	+21.2	90	91	In-line
33	Jordan Love	GB	QB	16	254.8	15.9	269.2	+14.3	78	78	In-line
34	Kenneth Walker III	SEA	RB	20	253.4	12.7	266.6	+13.2	89	90	In-line
35	Derrick Henry	BAL	RB	17	252.9	14.9	279.5	+26.6	88	92	In-line
36	Justin Jefferson	MIN	WR	17	249.1	14.7	201.5	-47.6	96	88	In-line
37	Ashton Jeanty	LV	RB	17	249.0	14.6	245.1	-3.9	87	87	In-line
38	Josh Jacobs	GB	RB	16	247.9	15.5	243.9	-4.0	86	86	In-line
39	Jacoby Brissett	ARI	QB	14	247.1	17.6	235.4	-11.6	76	73	In-line
40	Bryce Young	CAR	QB	17	245.3	14.4	243.0	-2.3	75	75	In-line
41	Daniel Jones	IND	QB	13	243.7	18.7	231.9	-11.8	73	70	In-line
42	Courtland Sutton	DEN	WR	19	243.2	12.8	239.7	-3.5	95	95	In-line
43	C.J. Stroud	HOU	QB	16	242.0	15.1	226.1	-15.9	71	68	In-line
44	Aaron Rodgers	PIT	QB	17	242.0	14.2	232.9	-9.1	70	71	In-line
45	D'Andre Swift	CHI	RB	18	240.6	13.4	252.5	+11.9	85	89	In-line
46	Emeka Egbuka	TB	WR	17	237.5	14.0	195.7	-41.8	95	85	In-line
47	Nico Collins	HOU	WR	16	232.1	14.5	231.3	-0.8	94	94	In-line
48	Kenneth Gainwell	PIT	RB	18	223.8	12.4	229.9	+6.1	84	84	In-line
49	CeeDee Lamb	DAL	WR	13	223.3	17.2	200.9	-22.4	93	87	In-line
50	Jaxson Dart	NYG	QB	14	220.0	15.7	243.6	+23.6	68	76	In-line
51	A.J. Brown	PHI	WR	16	219.3	13.7	223.8	+4.5	93	93	In-line
52	Wan'Dale Robinson	NYG	WR	16	217.0	13.6	217.9	+0.9	92	91	In-line
53	Michael Wilson	ARI	WR	17	216.3	12.7	220.6	+4.3	92	92	In-line
54	RJ Harvey	DEN	RB	19	216.0	11.4	228.1	+12.1	84	83	In-line
55	Tetairoa McMillan	CAR	WR	18	215.7	12.0	226.4	+10.7	91	93	In-line
56	Jaylen Warren	PIT	RB	17	215.5	12.7	222.8	+7.3	83	82	In-line
57	Brock Purdy	SF	QB	11	214.1	19.5	204.8	-9.4	66	65	In-line
58	Tyler Warren	IND	TE	17	213.5	12.6	188.5	-25.0	98	91	In-line
59	Keenan Allen	LAC	WR	18	212.9	11.8	188.2	-24.7	91	82	In-line
60	Lamar Jackson	BAL	QB	13	209.4	16.1	220.9	+11.4	65	66	In-line
61	Jakobi Meyers	JAX	WR	17	205.8	12.1	178.0	-27.8	89	80	In-line
62	Rico Dowdle	CAR	RB	18	205.4	11.4	218.8	+13.5	81	80	In-line
63	Zay Flowers	BAL	WR	17	205.1	12.1	243.3	+38.3	88	96	In-line
64	Rhamondre Stevenson	NE	RB	18	205.0	11.4	229.1	+24.1	80	84	In-line
65	Parker Washington	JAX	WR	16	203.4	12.7	196.6	-6.8	88	86	In-line
66	Drake London	ATL	WR	12	201.5	16.8	201.9	+0.4	87	88	In-line
67	Jake Ferguson	DAL	TE	17	200.9	11.8	188.1	-12.8	97	90	In-line
68	Woody Marks	HOU	RB	18	199.6	11.1	165.9	-33.7	79	75	In-line
69	Colston Loveland	CHI	TE	18	197.5	11.0	198.4	+0.9	96	95	In-line
70	Breece Hall	NYJ	RB	16	196.3	12.3	207.7	+11.4	78	79	In-line
71	Rome Odunze	CHI	WR	14	196.1	14.0	156.9	-39.2	85	77	In-line
72	Hunter Henry	NE	TE	21	195.3	9.3	205.0	+9.8	95	97	In-line
73	Kyle Pitts	ATL	TE	17	191.0	11.2	210.8	+19.8	94	98	In-line
74	DK Metcalf	PIT	WR	16	188.2	11.8	193.4	+5.2	82	84	In-line
75	Dalton Schultz	HOU	TE	19	183.0	9.6	188.6	+5.6	92	92	In-line
76	Quinshon Judkins	CLE	RB	14	180.9	12.9	169.8	-11.1	75	76	In-line
77	Travis Kelce	KC	TE	17	178.4	10.5	193.2	+14.8	91	94	In-line
78	Tee Higgins	CIN	WR	15	176.7	11.8	211.6	+34.9	79	90	In-line
79	Brian Thomas Jr.	JAX	WR	15	176.5	11.8	148.9	-27.6	78	75	In-line
80	Dallas Goedert	PHI	TE	16	167.1	10.4	204.5	+37.4	90	96	In-line
81	Tyrone Tracy Jr.	NYG	RB	15	166.6	11.1	160.8	-5.8	73	72	In-line
82	Harold Fannin Jr.	CLE	TE	16	158.6	9.9	186.4	+27.8	89	89	In-line
83	Juwan Johnson	NO	TE	17	154.3	9.1	179.9	+25.6	88	88	In-line
84	Marcus Mariota	WAS	QB	10	153.4	15.3	127.5	-25.9	57	48	In-line
85	J.J. McCarthy	MIN	QB	10	152.3	15.2	129.4	-22.9	55	50	In-line
86	Brock Bowers	LV	TE	12	149.5	12.5	176.2	+26.7	87	87	In-line
87	Kimani Vidal	LAC	RB	13	147.7	11.4	125.0	-22.7	69	63	In-line
88	Colby Parkinson	LA	TE	17	147.0	8.6	159.0	+12.0	86	83	In-line
89	Rashee Rice	KC	WR	8	144.9	18.1	150.1	+5.2	75	75	In-line
90	Mark Andrews	BAL	TE	17	141.5	8.3	131.0	-10.5	84	80	In-line
91	Joe Burrow	CIN	QB	8	141.0	17.6	134.2	-6.7	52	52	In-line
92	AJ Barner	SEA	TE	20	139.4	7.0	166.2	+26.8	83	86	In-line
93	Bucky Irving	TB	RB	10	139.1	13.9	138.5	-0.6	67	67	In-line
94	Omarion Hampton	LAC	RB	10	134.0	13.4	135.6	+1.6	66	66	In-line
95	Justin Fields	NYJ	QB	9	131.0	14.6	144.2	+13.2	48	55	In-line
96	Cade Otton	TB	TE	15	128.7	8.6	122.2	-6.5	82	75	In-line
97	George Kittle	SF	TE	12	128.5	10.7	163.1	+34.6	81	84	In-line
98	Jayden Daniels	WAS	QB	7	128.0	18.3	114.3	-13.7	47	45	In-line
99	Theo Johnson	NYG	TE	15	126.8	8.5	127.8	+0.9	80	79	In-line
100	Michael Penix Jr.	ATL	QB	9	126.7	14.1	124.3	-2.5	45	47	In-line
101	Evan Engram	DEN	TE	18	126.6	7.0	108.4	-18.2	79	68	In-line
102	Oronde Gadsden II	LAC	TE	16	126.1	7.9	137.4	+11.2	77	81	In-line
103	Zach Ertz	WAS	TE	13	125.2	9.6	126.4	+1.2	76	77	In-line
104	Mike Evans	TB	WR	8	117.6	14.7	84.8	-32.8	65	55	In-line
105	Brenton Strange	JAX	TE	13	115.5	8.9	120.9	+5.5	75	74	In-line
106	Cam Skattebo	NYG	RB	8	115.2	14.4	127.7	+12.5	59	64	In-line
107	Dalton Kincaid	BUF	TE	14	113.5	8.1	158.2	+44.8	74	82	In-line
108	T.J. Hockenson	MIN	TE	15	108.7	7.2	112.8	+4.1	70	69	In-line
109	Mason Taylor	NYJ	TE	13	98.7	7.6	88.9	-9.8	68	62	In-line
110	Kyler Murray	ARI	QB	5	96.3	19.3	77.8	-18.5	40	39	In-line
111	Jake Tonges	SF	TE	11	92.7	8.4	104.6	+11.9	65	66	In-line
112	Garrett Wilson	NYJ	WR	7	89.9	12.8	99.5	+9.6	55	62	In-line
113	Carson Wentz	MIN	QB	5	84.2	16.8	70.3	-13.8	39	37	In-line
114	Sam LaPorta	DET	TE	9	80.1	8.9	106.9	+26.8	62	67	In-line
115	David Njoku	CLE	TE	11	74.2	6.7	86.3	+12.1	58	59	In-line
116	Tucker Kraft	GB	TE	8	71.1	8.9	117.2	+46.1	55	73	Sell-high
117	Darren Waller	MIA	TE	8	68.2	8.5	88.7	+20.5	53	61	In-line
118	Malik Nabers	NYG	WR	4	63.7	15.9	57.1	-6.6	42	41	In-line
119	Tyreek Hill	MIA	WR	4	48.4	12.1	53.5	+5.1	32	40	In-line
120	James Conner	ARI	RB	3	40.3	13.4	33.3	-7.0	27	24	In-line

Data via nflverse (nflverse-data), licensed CC BY 4.0. How we source data

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