Receiving opportunity

Opportunity comes before production.

We read WOPR (target + air-yards share), aDOT, and RACR from real nflverse play-by-play, then flag where opportunity and production disagree — that gap is the edge. Not a pick.

Raw data (JSON)

How we read it

WOPR: 1.5·target share + 0.7·air-yards share. The single best summary of a receiver's role; it leads fantasy points.
aDOT & RACR: Depth of target, and yards earned per air yard. Together they separate volume from efficiency.
The read: Opportunity ≫ production = buy-low (positive regression); production ≫ opportunity = sell-high.

Production Snaps Opportunity Next Gen Trenches Combine QBR Edge Injuries Market DFS

Source window · Season 2024 through week 18 · 65 rows · refreshed 2026-06-13 07:38 UTC

Opportunity leaders · 2024 through week 18

Who's earning the looks

Real nflverse opportunity metrics (WOPR, target & air-yards share, aDOT, RACR). We read opportunity as the leading indicator and flag where it diverges from production (buy-low / sell-high). Context, not a pick.

Pos40 rows

#
1	A.J. Brown	PHI	WR	97	0.86	34%	51%	12.0	0.92	Stable
2	Malik Nabers	NYG	WR	170	0.86	36%	47%	9.5	0.75	Stable
3	Rashee Rice	KC	WR	29	0.75	33%	37%	5.2	1.91	Buy-low
4	George Pickens	PIT	WR	103	0.73	27%	47%	13.7	0.64	Stable
5	Courtland Sutton	DEN	WR	135	0.73	26%	48%	13.2	0.60	Stable
6	Justin Jefferson	MIN	WR	154	0.72	30%	38%	10.9	0.91	Stable
7	Rashid Shaheed	NO	WR	41	0.72	24%	50%	17.6	0.48	Buy-low
8	Puka Nacua	LA	WR	106	0.70	33%	31%	7.9	1.18	Stable
9	Davante Adams	NYJ	WR	141	0.70	30%	36%	8.3	0.91	Stable
10	Drake London	ATL	WR	158	0.68	28%	37%	10.9	0.74	Stable
11	Calvin Ridley	TEN	WR	120	0.66	24%	43%	15.7	0.54	Stable
12	Mike Evans	TB	WR	110	0.66	25%	40%	11.6	0.79	Stable
13	Brian Thomas	JAX	WR	133	0.64	26%	37%	11.6	0.83	Stable
14	DeVonta Smith	PHI	WR	89	0.64	28%	31%	9.1	1.03	Stable
15	Ja'Marr Chase	CIN	WR	175	0.64	27%	33%	8.7	1.12	Stable
16	Marvin Harrison	ARI	WR	116	0.64	23%	43%	13.5	0.57	Stable
17	Garrett Wilson	NYJ	WR	153	0.64	26%	36%	9.0	0.80	Stable
18	CeeDee Lamb	DAL	WR	152	0.64	28%	30%	7.8	1.00	Stable
19	Tee Higgins	CIN	WR	109	0.63	26%	35%	9.8	0.85	Stable
20	Chris Godwin	TB	WR	62	0.63	28%	30%	5.7	1.62	Buy-low
21	Terry McLaurin	WAS	WR	117	0.63	23%	40%	13.3	0.70	Stable
22	Keenan Allen	CHI	WR	121	0.62	27%	32%	9.2	0.67	Stable
23	Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET	WR	141	0.62	27%	31%	7.7	1.17	Stable
24	Trey McBride	ARI	TE	147	0.62	29%	27%	6.1	1.27	Stable
25	Jakobi Meyers	LV	WR	129	0.61	25%	34%	9.9	0.80	Stable
26	Nico Collins	HOU	WR	99	0.61	25%	35%	10.9	0.93	Stable
27	Tyreek Hill	MIA	WR	122	0.60	22%	40%	11.2	0.70	Stable
28	DK Metcalf	SEA	WR	108	0.60	21%	41%	13.7	0.67	Stable
29	Jauan Jennings	SF	WR	113	0.59	25%	31%	9.9	0.87	Stable
30	D.J. Moore	CHI	WR	140	0.59	27%	26%	7.5	0.92	Stable
31	Ladd McConkey	LAC	WR	112	0.58	25%	30%	9.9	1.03	Stable
32	Jerry Jeudy	CLE	WR	145	0.57	23%	33%	11.1	0.76	Stable
33	Stefon Diggs	HOU	WR	64	0.57	24%	29%	8.7	0.89	Buy-low
34	Zay Flowers	BAL	WR	116	0.57	25%	27%	10.4	0.88	Stable
35	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA	WR	137	0.56	24%	29%	8.7	0.95	Stable
36	Cooper Kupp	LA	WR	100	0.56	25%	27%	7.6	0.94	Stable
37	Michael Pittman	IND	WR	111	0.56	25%	26%	11.1	0.65	Stable
38	Amari Cooper	BUF	WR	85	0.55	21%	34%	13.7	0.47	Stable
39	Brock Bowers	LV	TE	153	0.55	26%	23%	6.0	1.29	Stable
40	Darnell Mooney	ATL	WR	106	0.54	21%	33%	12.2	0.77	Stable

WOPR = 1.5·target share + 0.7·air-yards share (mean per game). The read compares opportunity vs production percentiles — weight this, not the box score.

Backfield · efficiency vs volume · 2025

RB value is a different equation

Real Next Gen rushing: yards over expected per carry vs. volume, with stacked-box context. We read volume as the floor and efficiency as the (regression-prone) ceiling. Context, not a pick.

25 rows

#
1	Jonathan Taylor	IND	323	+0.61	20.0%	Volume-dep
2	James Cook	BUF	309	+1.17	30.0%	Bell-cow
3	Derrick Henry	BAL	307	+1.12	40.0%	Bell-cow
4	Bijan Robinson	ATL	287	+0.91	10.0%	Bell-cow
5	Kyren Williams	LAR	259	+0.57	20.0%	Volume-dep
6	Javonte Williams	DAL	252	+0.62	20.0%	Volume-dep
7	Jahmyr Gibbs	DET	243	+0.70	20.0%	Volume-dep
8	Breece Hall	NYJ	242	+0.59	30.0%	Volume-dep
9	Tony Pollard	TEN	242	+0.47	20.0%	Volume-dep
10	Devon Achane	MIA	238	+1.03	20.0%	Bell-cow
11	Rico Dowdle	CAR	236	+0.63	20.0%	Limited
12	D'Andre Swift	CHI	223	+0.58	20.0%	Limited
13	Jaylen Warren	PIT	211	+0.86	30.0%	Buy-low
14	TreVeyon Henderson	NE	180	+0.85	30.0%	Buy-low
15	Jacory Croskey-Merritt	WAS	175	+0.79	30.0%	Limited
16	Jordan Mason	MIN	159	+1.02	20.0%	Buy-low
17	David Montgomery	DET	158	+0.80	30.0%	Limited
18	Kimani Vidal	LAC	155	+0.50	30.0%	Limited
19	J.K. Dobbins	DEN	153	+1.08	40.0%	Buy-low
20	Blake Corum	LAR	145	+0.85	20.0%	Buy-low
21	Rhamondre Stevenson	NE	130	+1.36	30.0%	Buy-low
22	Omarion Hampton	LAC	124	+0.66	30.0%	Limited
23	Nick Chubb	HOU	122	+0.54	20.0%	Limited
24	Kenneth Gainwell	PIT	114	+0.58	30.0%	Limited
25	Chris Rodriguez	WAS	112	+0.70	30.0%	Limited

Volume is the floor (sticky, coach-driven); RYOE is the regression-prone ceiling. Hover a row for the read.

Data via nflverse (nflverse-data), licensed CC BY 4.0. How we source data