Roster Advice
Model → real add/drop/read decisions for a posted roster (composes with Sleeper sync).
Intelligence engines
How we read it
Process grade: the composite
The within-position percentile of each predictive anchor, averaged. QBs are graded on EPA/play + DAKOTA + PACR; receivers on WOPR + target share + EPA; backs on volume + EPA. Anchors persist and forecast; production is the noisy output. The gap is the edge.
Buy-low: inputs say more is coming
When the process grade sits well above the actual production percentile, the opportunity says the points are coming. Buy-low before it corrects.
Sell-high: running hot
When production outruns the process grade, the player is converting above his usage. Sell-high before it regresses. In-line means the points are earned by the opportunity. Not a pick.
2024 · through week 18 · 96 profiles
This week's buy-low adds
Process grade outruns the box score. The underlying inputs say the production is coming. Acquire before the market reprices.
Process grade outruns the box score. The underlying inputs say the production is coming. Acquire before the market reprices.
Process grade outruns the box score. The underlying inputs say the production is coming. Acquire before the market reprices.
Process grade outruns the box score. The underlying inputs say the production is coming. Acquire before the market reprices.
Process grade outruns the box score. The underlying inputs say the production is coming. Acquire before the market reprices.
Process grade outruns the box score. The underlying inputs say the production is coming. Acquire before the market reprices.
Process grade outruns the box score. The underlying inputs say the production is coming. Acquire before the market reprices.
Process grade outruns the box score. The underlying inputs say the production is coming. Acquire before the market reprices.
Sell-high / move off
Production outruns the process grade. It's running hotter than the inputs support. Sell into the value.
Production outruns the process grade. It's running hotter than the inputs support. Sell into the value.
Production outruns the process grade. It's running hotter than the inputs support. Sell into the value.
Production outruns the process grade. It's running hotter than the inputs support. Sell into the value.
Production outruns the process grade. It's running hotter than the inputs support. Sell into the value.
Production outruns the process grade. It's running hotter than the inputs support. Sell into the value.
QB
| # | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jared Goff | DET | 97 | 88 | +0.29 | 0.20 | 1.55 | In-line |
| 2 | Lamar Jackson | BAL | 95 | 99 | +0.30 | 0.20 | 1.22 | In-line |
| 3 | Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | 91 | 56 | +0.20 | 0.14 | 1.28 | Buy-low |
| 4 | Baker Mayfield | TB | 88 | 93 | +0.20 | 0.15 | 1.21 | In-line |
| 5 | Joe Burrow | CIN | 86 | 97 | +0.19 | 0.16 | 1.12 | In-line |
| 6 | Josh Allen | BUF | 85 | 95 | +0.32 | 0.17 | 1.02 | In-line |
| 7 | Patrick Mahomes | KC | 78 | 76 | +0.15 | 0.12 | 1.14 | In-line |
| 8 | Brock Purdy | SF | 78 | 73 | +0.19 | 0.14 | 1.05 | In-line |
| 9 | Jayden Daniels | WAS | 78 | 90 | +0.19 | 0.14 | 1.03 | In-line |
| 10 | Derek Carr | NO | 77 | 46 | +0.16 | 0.13 | 1.09 | Buy-low |
| 11 | Kyler Murray | ARI | 76 | 80 | +0.14 | 0.13 | 1.13 | In-line |
| 12 | Jalen Hurts | PHI | 76 | 84 | +0.16 | 0.16 | 1.00 | In-line |
| 13 | Geno Smith | SEA | 73 | 71 | +0.04 | 0.11 | 1.25 | In-line |
| 14 | Michael Penix | ATL | 71 | 5 | +0.14 | 0.08 | 1.54 | Buy-low |
| 15 | Jordan Love | GB | 68 | 65 | +0.14 | 0.13 | 0.99 | In-line |
| 16 | Bo Nix | DEN | 67 | 86 | +0.09 | 0.10 | 1.05 | Sell-high |
| 17 | Sam Darnold | MIN | 66 | 82 | +0.08 | 0.14 | 0.98 | In-line |
| 18 | Mason Rudolph | TEN | 63 | 22 | +0.01 | 0.09 | 1.25 | Buy-low |
| 19 | Matthew Stafford | LA | 61 | 61 | +0.06 | 0.10 | 1.03 | In-line |
| 20 | Justin Herbert | LAC | 61 | 78 | +0.13 | 0.12 | 0.93 | In-line |
| 21 | Kirk Cousins | ATL | 60 | 52 | +0.01 | 0.10 | 1.10 | In-line |
| 22 | Aaron Rodgers | NYJ | 54 | 69 | +0.02 | 0.08 | 1.05 | In-line |
| 23 | Russell Wilson | PIT | 49 | 50 | -0.02 | 0.11 | 0.96 | In-line |
| 24 | Justin Fields | PIT | 47 | 35 | +0.05 | 0.10 | 0.83 | In-line |
RB
| # | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saquon Barkley | PHI | 94 | 99 | +0.12 | 0.20 | 388 | In-line |
| 2 | Derrick Henry | BAL | 93 | 96 | +0.14 | 0.10 | 347 | In-line |
| 3 | Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | 92 | 98 | +0.16 | 0.20 | 313 | In-line |
| 4 | Bijan Robinson | ATL | 89 | 97 | +0.07 | 0.20 | 376 | In-line |
| 5 | Bucky Irving | TB | 84 | 86 | +0.14 | 0.11 | 259 | In-line |
| 6 | James Cook | BUF | 80 | 92 | +0.10 | 0.15 | 245 | In-line |
| 7 | Devon Achane | MIA | 79 | 95 | +0.04 | 0.23 | 290 | In-line |
| 8 | James Conner | ARI | 76 | 88 | +0.02 | 0.15 | 291 | In-line |
| 9 | Chase Brown | CIN | 76 | 89 | +0.01 | 0.18 | 294 | In-line |
| 10 | Aaron Jones | MIN | 75 | 85 | -0.03 | 0.19 | 317 | In-line |
| 11 | David Montgomery | DET | 74 | 80 | +0.04 | 0.13 | 223 | In-line |
| 12 | Kareem Hunt | KC | 73 | 66 | +0.02 | 0.10 | 232 | In-line |
| 13 | Josh Jacobs | GB | 72 | 94 | -0.04 | 0.15 | 344 | Sell-high |
| 14 | Austin Ekeler | WAS | 71 | 62 | +0.16 | 0.16 | 118 | In-line |
| 15 | Rico Dowdle | DAL | 71 | 75 | -0.02 | 0.12 | 284 | In-line |
| 16 | Najee Harris | PIT | 71 | 78 | -0.04 | 0.15 | 311 | In-line |
| 17 | Joe Mixon | HOU | 70 | 82 | -0.04 | 0.19 | 297 | In-line |
| 18 | Kyren Williams | LA | 70 | 93 | -0.07 | 0.13 | 356 | Sell-high |
| 19 | Chuba Hubbard | CAR | 69 | 84 | -0.04 | 0.20 | 304 | In-line |
| 20 | Tyler Allgeier | ATL | 69 | 52 | +0.05 | 0.06 | 150 | In-line |
| 21 | Ray Davis | BUF | 67 | 56 | +0.07 | 0.09 | 132 | In-line |
| 22 | Alvin Kamara | NO | 66 | 90 | -0.08 | 0.34 | 317 | Sell-high |
| 23 | Justice Hill | BAL | 65 | 59 | +0.15 | 0.19 | 98 | In-line |
| 24 | Jonathan Taylor | IND | 65 | 87 | -0.10 | 0.14 | 334 | Sell-high |
WR
| # | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | A.J. Brown | PHI | 98 | 85 | +0.64 | 0.86 | 97 | In-line |
| 2 | Rashee Rice | KC | 97 | 21 | +0.63 | 0.75 | 30 | Buy-low |
| 3 | DeVonta Smith | PHI | 92 | 79 | +0.64 | 0.64 | 90 | In-line |
| 4 | Puka Nacua | LA | 92 | 80 | +0.47 | 0.70 | 117 | In-line |
| 5 | Justin Jefferson | MIN | 91 | 99 | +0.43 | 0.72 | 155 | In-line |
| 6 | Chris Godwin | TB | 90 | 58 | +0.59 | 0.63 | 63 | Buy-low |
| 7 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | 90 | 98 | +0.68 | 0.62 | 143 | In-line |
| 8 | Ja'Marr Chase | CIN | 88 | 100 | +0.44 | 0.64 | 178 | In-line |
| 9 | Tee Higgins | CIN | 87 | 87 | +0.53 | 0.63 | 109 | In-line |
| 10 | Malik Nabers | NYG | 85 | 96 | +0.25 | 0.86 | 175 | In-line |
| 11 | Courtland Sutton | DEN | 83 | 89 | +0.33 | 0.73 | 135 | In-line |
| 12 | Brian Thomas | JAX | 83 | 97 | +0.39 | 0.64 | 139 | In-line |
| 13 | Terry McLaurin | WAS | 82 | 95 | +0.55 | 0.63 | 119 | In-line |
| 14 | Ladd McConkey | LAC | 82 | 90 | +0.58 | 0.58 | 112 | In-line |
| 15 | George Pickens | PIT | 81 | 67 | +0.25 | 0.73 | 105 | In-line |
| 16 | Nico Collins | HOU | 80 | 82 | +0.43 | 0.61 | 99 | In-line |
| 17 | Mike Evans | TB | 79 | 89 | +0.35 | 0.66 | 110 | In-line |
| 18 | Drake London | ATL | 78 | 96 | +0.22 | 0.68 | 159 | Sell-high |
| 19 | Jauan Jennings | SF | 77 | 81 | +0.38 | 0.59 | 113 | In-line |
| 20 | Zay Flowers | BAL | 76 | 81 | +0.38 | 0.57 | 125 | In-line |
| 21 | Adam Thielen | CAR | 75 | 59 | +0.65 | 0.49 | 62 | In-line |
| 22 | Davante Adams | NYJ | 74 | 92 | +0.14 | 0.70 | 141 | Sell-high |
| 23 | Stefon Diggs | HOU | 72 | 50 | +0.32 | 0.57 | 67 | Buy-low |
| 24 | Jakobi Meyers | LV | 72 | 85 | +0.24 | 0.61 | 131 | In-line |
TE
| # | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | George Kittle | SF | 93 | 96 | +0.72 | 0.46 | 94 | In-line |
| 2 | Trey McBride | ARI | 88 | 97 | +0.34 | 0.62 | 148 | In-line |
| 3 | Jonnu Smith | MIA | 85 | 94 | +0.51 | 0.39 | 113 | In-line |
| 4 | Dallas Goedert | PHI | 81 | 54 | +0.37 | 0.41 | 52 | Buy-low |
| 5 | Mark Andrews | BAL | 79 | 91 | +0.73 | 0.35 | 73 | In-line |
| 6 | Pat Freiermuth | PIT | 77 | 85 | +0.46 | 0.35 | 78 | In-line |
| 7 | Sam LaPorta | DET | 77 | 87 | +0.38 | 0.39 | 83 | In-line |
| 8 | Hunter Henry | NE | 76 | 80 | +0.25 | 0.44 | 97 | In-line |
| 9 | Brock Bowers | LV | 76 | 99 | +0.17 | 0.55 | 158 | Sell-high |
| 10 | Zach Ertz | WAS | 75 | 89 | +0.32 | 0.40 | 91 | In-line |
| 11 | Travis Kelce | KC | 74 | 92 | +0.16 | 0.53 | 134 | Sell-high |
| 12 | Tucker Kraft | GB | 74 | 84 | +0.54 | 0.29 | 73 | In-line |
| 13 | Dalton Kincaid | BUF | 72 | 49 | +0.20 | 0.43 | 75 | Buy-low |
| 14 | Isaiah Likely | BAL | 68 | 73 | +0.48 | 0.29 | 58 | In-line |
| 15 | Evan Engram | JAX | 66 | 44 | -0.00 | 0.50 | 64 | Buy-low |
| 16 | Mike Gesicki | CIN | 66 | 78 | +0.41 | 0.30 | 83 | In-line |
| 17 | T.J. Hockenson | MIN | 64 | 42 | +0.15 | 0.40 | 62 | Buy-low |
| 18 | David Njoku | CLE | 63 | 82 | -0.07 | 0.45 | 97 | Sell-high |
| 19 | Taysom Hill | NO | 62 | 51 | +0.30 | 0.28 | 70 | In-line |
| 20 | Cole Kmet | CHI | 62 | 68 | +0.51 | 0.26 | 55 | In-line |
| 21 | Cade Otton | TB | 62 | 77 | +0.13 | 0.39 | 88 | In-line |
| 22 | Juwan Johnson | NO | 61 | 72 | +0.28 | 0.30 | 66 | In-line |
| 23 | Will Dissly | LAC | 57 | 61 | +0.24 | 0.28 | 64 | In-line |
| 24 | Grant Calcaterra | PHI | 57 | 30 | +0.53 | 0.21 | 30 | Buy-low |
One canonical advanced profile per player: EPA efficiency, opportunity, and volume combined into a position-aware process grade, with the process-vs-production gap surfaced (buy-low / sell-high). The data layer that drives the tools. Context, not a point projection.
Data via nflverse (nflverse-data), licensed CC BY 4.0. How we source data
Model → real add/drop/read decisions for a posted roster (composes with Sleeper sync).
Composes the model + xFP + team environment (real schemeFit from neutral-script offensive EPA) + QB-forward passing signal into a real graded pool that drives every fantasy tool when the founder enables it.
ESPN QBR (results) vs Next Gen CPOE (accuracy), triangulated. Disagreement surfaced, not averaged.
RYOE/att vs volume with stacked-box context: bell-cow / buy-low / volume-dependent.
Air-yards & target share → WOPR, with opportunity-vs-production buy/sell.