How we read the numbers.

1.5 × target share + 0.7 × air-yards share

What it is

A single number for how much of the passing game runs through a receiver — volume and depth combined.

How we read it

The leading indicator of receiver fantasy points. Opportunity is sticky week to week, so high WOPR forecasts production even before the box score catches up.

Commonly misread

Chasing last week's yards or touchdowns — outputs that bounce around — instead of the role that generates them.

Our edge

We rank by WOPR and flag receivers whose opportunity outruns their production as buy-lows before the market reprices them.

What it is

The percentage of a team's targets that go to a player.

How we read it

The cleanest claim on volume. A rising target share is a role change — the most actionable waiver signal there is.

Commonly misread

Treating a one-week target spike as a trend instead of waiting for the role to stabilize.

Our edge

We weight share by recency and pair it with air-yards share (WOPR) so a checkdown machine and a field-stretcher aren't valued the same.

What it is

A player's share of the team's intended air yards; aDOT is the average depth of his targets.

How we read it

Depth = upside. Two receivers with equal targets but different air-yards share have very different ceilings and TD equity.

Commonly misread

Ignoring depth entirely and ranking on catches — which over-values low-aDOT possession roles.

Our edge

Air-yards share is half of our WOPR and the tiebreaker between a safe floor and a league-winning ceiling.

receiving yards ÷ air yards

What it is

How many yards a receiver turns each intended air yard into (YAC + accuracy + luck).

How we read it

An efficiency descriptor, not a forecast. Extreme RACR regresses hard, so we read it as a sample of context, not a repeatable skill.

Commonly misread

Extrapolating a hot RACR as if it'll continue — it's the single biggest source of false breakouts.

Our edge

We use RACR to explain a result, never to project one; the opportunity metrics carry the forecast.

What it is

Yards a back gains per carry above what a tracking model expects from the blocking and box.

How we read it

The ceiling, not the floor. Per-carry efficiency is real talent but regresses fast, so we treat hot RYOE as regression-prone unless it's earned against loaded boxes.

Commonly misread

Drafting last year's efficiency leaders and expecting it to repeat — RB efficiency is one of the least sticky stats there is.

Our edge

We separate efficiency from volume and only trust RYOE that's earned vs stacked fronts; otherwise volume carries the projection.

What it is

Carries (and total touches) a back actually gets.

How we read it

The RB floor. Volume is coach-driven and sticky — it's the single most predictive RB input, full stop.

Commonly misread

Falling for an efficient backup over a plodding bell-cow — points come from touches, not highlight runs.

Our edge

For RBs we lead with volume and treat efficiency as the swing factor, the inverse of how we read receivers.

What it is

Share of a back's carries against eight or more defenders in the box.

How we read it

Context for efficiency. Positive yards over expected against loaded boxes is real; the same number on light boxes is schemed and fades.

Commonly misread

Reading raw yards per carry without the difficulty of the fronts that produced it.

Our edge

We grade efficiency through box difficulty, so we don't reward a back the defense simply wasn't respecting.

What it is

How much more often a QB completes a pass than a tracking model expects, given depth, pressure, and coverage.

How we read it

The most stable public measure of QB accuracy — it's a skill that persists, so it's a real input to QB quality.

Commonly misread

Reading raw completion % (which rewards dink-and-dunk) as accuracy.

Our edge

We triangulate CPOE against results-based QBR and surface when they disagree, rather than trusting either alone.

What it is

A results/EPA-weighted 0–100 QB score, play-weighted across the season.

How we read it

A genuinely independent second opinion on the QB — but more outcome-driven (and thus noisier) than CPOE.

Commonly misread

Treating a single composite number as truth and ignoring what's driving it.

Our edge

We never average QBR with CPOE — we percentile both and read the GAP (results-over-accuracy vs the reverse) as the real signal.

What it is

How often a QB is pressured and how quickly he gets the ball out (PFR / Next Gen).

How we read it

Environment and process. Pressure suppresses QB and pass-catcher value; a fast release can mask a bad line.

Commonly misread

Blaming a QB for a line's failures (or crediting one for a clean pocket) without separating the two.

Our edge

We fold pressure into the QB read so accuracy and results are judged against the conditions that produced them.

What it is

The percentage of offensive snaps a player is on the field.

How we read it

The role behind every other stat. Rising snap share precedes rising production — it's the earliest legitimate breakout signal.

Commonly misread

Reacting to fantasy points without checking whether the snaps that produced them are stable or a fluke.

Our edge

We use snap share as the gate on every opportunity read — no role, no projection bump.

What it is

Public injury designations (Out/Doubtful/Questionable) and game-day weather/surface.

How we read it

A confidence-band modifier, never a body claim. It can only WIDEN uncertainty or move a read to watchlist / no-bet.

Commonly misread

Inventing health percentages or treating a Questionable tag as a coin flip rather than a band-widener.

Our edge

We say 'availability uncertain per public report' and widen the band — we never manufacture certainty about a body.

What it is

Quality of contact — the share of batted balls in the ideal exit-velocity/launch-angle window (barrels) and hit 95+ mph (hard-hit).

How we read it

The most predictive public power signal in baseball. Quality of contact stabilizes far faster than home runs or batting average and forecasts them.

Commonly misread

Chasing a hitter's home-run total or BABIP-inflated average — outputs that swing wildly on small samples.

Our edge

Quality-of-contact vs results, same as our football reads: barrel% up but production down = buy-low; production up on weak contact = sell-high. (Pending a verified, license-clear Statcast source.)

What it is

How often a hitter strikes out (or a pitcher misses bats).

How we read it

One of the fastest-stabilizing stats in the sport — a near-skill that's usable on tiny samples for both hitters and pitchers.

Commonly misread

Waiting for ERA or batting average to 'come around' when the underlying K profile already told the story.

Our edge

We lean on the fast-stabilizing skills (K%, whiff, xwOBA) over slow, luck-soaked outcomes. (Pending a verified, license-clear Statcast source.)