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Calibration Report

Every settled canonical pick is included. Bootstrap-era picks are excluded by design. They don't get to inflate the record.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calibration & discrimination

168 settled picks

Does higher confidence win more?

Higher confidence is winning less. Under review

Higher-confidence picks are separating from lower-confidence ones, but each bucket is still below the publish threshold, so concrete win rates are withheld until they clear it.

Reliability by confidence bucket

bar = observed · marker = expected
50-59
67.3%n=55
60-69
51.1%n=47
70-79
57.3%n=41
80-89
—23/30
90-100
—2/30

The honest band: 95% interval, not a point claim

Moderate reliability

50.9% · 59.1% · 66.8%over 143 settled picks

The band is informative. Mind its width before leaning on it.

Brier score 0.304

Above the coin-flip baseline. Calibration needs work.

Calibration is computed from settled canonical picks only. Calibration is evidence only. It never auto-adjusts the model. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

No canonical performance data yet

We're still accumulating settled canonical picks.

The performance page is enabled, but there aren't yet enough settled canonical picks to publish meaningful win-rate numbers.

Bootstrap-era picks, those generated before canonical history was enabled, are stored for internal validation but are never counted in public performance numbers. We do this on purpose so the first numbers you see represent the live engine, not warm-up data.

What needs to be true before this page shows data

  1. 1.Canonical history is enabled and new picks are being written with isBootstrap=false.
  2. 2.At least 100 canonical picks have settled with verified outcomes.
  3. 3.The platform's PERFORMANCE_STATS_ENABLED readiness gate is set to true.

What you'll see once data is published

  • • Sample size and period covered
  • • Model version used during the period
  • • Win / loss / push counts, computed only from canonical picks
  • • Win rate computed as wins divided by decided outcomes; pushes are reported separately
  • • Timestamp when the summary was last computed

Risk disclosure

Sports wagering is real risk. Only stake what you can afford to lose without changing your week. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER. Past performance does not guarantee future results.