Touchdown intelligence

Who finds the end zone.

Anytime-touchdown probability from four public factors, weighted in the open and pushed through a stated logistic. Hand the board to a skeptic and they can recompute every number without trusting us.

What we will not do: show you a hit rate we have not earned on our own data, or print an “edge” against a market price we do not have a license to read. Where the board is unpriceable it says so.

Goal-line intelligence

Anytime TD board

Every score below is recomputable by hand: a weighted composite of the four published factors, pushed through a stated logistic.

Source: fictional (illustrative)

Season TD rate: 40%
Red-zone volume: 20%
Goal-line volume: 20%
Vegas team total: 20%

prob = logistic((score − 0.5) × 6)

Basis: Proxy basis: red-zone and goal-line shares are derived from the authored usage/schemeFit fields of the illustrative pool, not from a measured red-zone feed. Team totals and market prices are absent and reported as missing.

Model rank 1

Marcus Vale

RBATL

77.7%

anytime-TD probability

Model rank 2

Deon Pryce

RBDET

75.0%

anytime-TD probability

Model rank 3

Tariq Bell

RBPHI

63.9%

anytime-TD probability

Full board30 players · 0 priced

1Marcus ValeRBATL77.7%—1 missing

2Deon PryceRBDET75.0%—1 missing

3Tariq BellRBPHI63.9%—1 missing

4Isaiah RonanRBSF61.8%—1 missing

5Julian RoeWRMIA54.8%—1 missing

6K.J. FerrisRBBAL54.7%—1 missing

7DeShawn KempWRCIN49.7%—1 missing

8Emory BanksWRLAR44.7%—1 missing

9Rashad LinWRBUF40.8%—1 missing

10Cole MathisRBGB38.2%—1 missing

11Rocco VanceTEKC37.8%—1 missing

12Tobias FreyWRSEA35.9%—1 missing

13Andre SotoRBHOU34.9%—1 missing

14Noah CastilleWRKC34.2%—1 missing

15Dell OseiTEDET29.1%—1 missing

16Amari StokesWRDAL27.1%—1 missing

17Quentin AshRBTB24.9%—1 missing

18Leon DeveauxWRJAX23.5%—1 missing

19Marco PellTEGB21.7%—1 missing

20Malik OrrRBDEN20.2%—1 missing

21Cy MerrittWRNYG19.6%—1 missing

22Asa QuinnTEBUF17.1%—1 missing

23Victor PineRBNYJ15.2%—1 missing

24Dom VegaWRLV14.3%—1 missing

25Ivan MrazTELAR13.5%—1 missing

26Silas HartQBPHI4.7%—1 missing

27Reed CallumQBBAL4.7%—1 missing

28Emmett ShawQBCIN4.7%—1 missing

29Grant SotoQBDET4.7%—1 missing

30Bo FinneganQBSEA4.7%—1 missing

Edge is model probability minus the vig-stripped market probability. Rows without a market price show an em-dash — an unpriceable board is reported, never dressed up.

Educational modelling on an illustrative player pool — the names are fictional, so no probability is ever pinned to a real person. Past results do not predict future results, and nothing here is a promise an outcome. Building the proof layer? See the public CLV report and the calibration report.