Model rank 1
Bijan Robinson
RBATL
77.7%
anytime-TD probability
Touchdown intelligence
Who finds the end zone.
Anytime-touchdown probability from four public factors, weighted in the open and pushed through a stated logistic. Hand the board to a skeptic and they can recompute every number without trusting us.
What we will not do: show you a hit rate we have not earned on our own data, or print an “edge” against a market price we do not have a license to read. Where the board is unpriceable it says so.
Goal-line intelligence
Anytime TD board
Every score below is recomputable by hand: a weighted composite of the four published factors, pushed through a stated logistic.
- Season TD rate
- 40%
- Red-zone volume
- 20%
- Goal-line volume
- 20%
- Vegas team total
- 20%
prob = logistic((score − 0.5) × 6)
Basis: Proxy basis: red-zone and goal-line shares are derived from the authored usage/schemeFit fields of the illustrative pool, not from a measured red-zone feed. Team totals and market prices are absent and reported as missing.
Model rank 2
Jahmyr Gibbs
RBDET
75.0%
anytime-TD probability
Model rank 3
Saquon Barkley
RBPHI
63.9%
anytime-TD probability
Full board30 players · 0 priced
1Bijan RobinsonRBATL77.7%—1 missing
2Jahmyr GibbsRBDET75.0%—1 missing
3Saquon BarkleyRBPHI63.9%—1 missing
4Christian McCaffreyRBSF61.8%—1 missing
5Tyreek HillWRMIA54.8%—1 missing
6Derrick HenryRBBAL54.7%—1 missing
7Ja'Marr ChaseWRCIN49.7%—1 missing
8Puka NacuaWRLAR44.7%—1 missing
9Stefon DiggsWRHOU40.8%—1 missing
10Josh JacobsRBGB38.2%—1 missing
11Travis KelceTEKC37.8%—1 missing
12DK MetcalfWRSEA35.9%—1 missing
13Joe MixonRBHOU34.9%—1 missing
14Rashee RiceWRKC34.2%—1 missing
15Sam LaPortaTEDET29.1%—1 missing
16CeeDee LambWRDAL27.1%—1 missing
17Bucky IrvingRBTB24.9%—1 missing
18Brian Thomas Jr.WRJAX23.5%—1 missing
19Tucker KraftTEGB21.7%—1 missing
20Javonte WilliamsRBDEN20.2%—1 missing
21Malik NabersWRNYG19.6%—1 missing
22Dalton KincaidTEBUF17.1%—1 missing
23Breece HallRBNYJ15.2%—1 missing
24Jakobi MeyersWRLV14.3%—1 missing
25Colby ParkinsonTELAR13.5%—1 missing
26Jalen HurtsQBPHI4.7%—1 missing
27Lamar JacksonQBBAL4.7%—1 missing
28Joe BurrowQBCIN4.7%—1 missing
29Jared GoffQBDET4.7%—1 missing
30Geno SmithQBSEA4.7%—1 missing
Edge is model probability minus the vig-stripped market probability. Rows without a market price show an em-dash. An unpriceable board is reported, never dressed up.
Empirical touchdown modeling on the 2026 NFL active player pool. Past results do not predict future results, and nothing here is a promise of an outcome. Building the proof layer? See the public CLV report and the calibration report.