The benchmark nobody publishes
Closing Line Value
Did you beat where the betting line ended up? Consistently beating the close is the clearest public proof of a real edge.
If you bet a team at +3 and it closed at +1, you got CLV. The market moved your way after you were in.
Why this is the number that matters
A win rate tells you what already happened. Closing line value tells you whether you were right to be in. It is the strongest leading indicator that an edge is real, because the closing line is the market's most efficient estimate. Beat it consistently and profit tends to follow; lose to it and even a lucky run erodes.
It is also the one number tout services and “AI prediction” sites almost never show. A curated win streak is easy to screenshot. Beating the close, counted over every settled pick, is not. That is exactly why we publish it.
Beat the close
22.7%
of 1542 graded canonical picks
95% confidence interval: 20.7%–24.9%
Range still includes 52.4% break-even. No settled-edge claim yet62.3% of 2476 settled picks graded against the close
The beat-close rate above is a partial sample until coverage reaches 100%. The ungraded picks are excluded from this count, not counted as losses.
Last graded Sep 15, 2026
Beat
350
Matched
664
Lost
528
Beat the close on 22.7% of 1542 graded picks (95% CI 20.7-24.9%). That range still includes the 52.4% break-even line, so we don't yet claim a settled edge. Closing line value is a leading indicator, not a guarantee of future results.
Now measure your own.
The CLV Tracker logs your bets, settles them against the closing line, and shows whether you beat the close: your real scoreboard, stored in your browser. The same metric we hold ourselves to. Part of the Elite toolkit.
Open the CLV Tracker (Elite) →Risk disclosure
Sports wagering is real risk. Only stake what you can afford to lose without changing your week. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER. Past performance does not guarantee future results.