Accountability

We grade ourselves in public.

Losses get autopsies. The model is versioned. Every gate flip and calibration update is logged with a date. Nothing is quietly removed to make the record look cleaner. If a pick lost, it stays in the ledger and it gets a post-mortem when review is complete.

The credibility of every future pick depends on the integrity of the existing record. That is the only reason transparency is worth doing.

Loss autopsies

Hall of Misses

Every published non-bootstrap pick that settled as a loss is in the Loss Room. Post-mortems attach when operator review is complete. The original reasoning and signal snapshot stay visible regardless.

Open the Loss Room

Calibration report

Honest Band

The calibration report counts every finished pick from the live engine, wins and losses alike. Early warm-up picks are excluded by design: they do not get to inflate the record. Win rate stays gated until enough settled history exists to publish a number that is honest.

View Calibration Report

Closing line value

Beat the close

The sharp-credible leading indicator of edge: whether the price we locked beat where the market closed. It is the one number tout services never show. Published under the same gate as the win rate, with no number shown before it can be honestly backed.

See our CLV

Model changelog

Ship log

Every model version, gate flip, and calibration update is logged publicly with a date and a reason. The changelog is how the record stays readable over time, not just a snapshot of where things stand today.

Read the Changelog

Tamper-evident record

Proof of Record

Every settled pick gets a digital fingerprint (a hash) the moment it is written. Change a pick after the fact and its fingerprint stops matching. One published master fingerprint covers the whole record, so anyone can re-run the math and confirm nothing was changed.

View Proof of Record

What these surfaces cover

Loss autopsies: Root-cause analysis, signal snapshot, model version, what we saw vs. what happened, and what changed afterward.
Calibration: Win rate by sport, push rate, sample size, Honest Band (uncertainty range), and the methodology behind the numbers.
Model versions: Every pick carries a model version tag. The changelog links those tags to what changed in the scoring logic.

The commitment

No pick is removed from the ledger once settled: wins and losses stay.
Bootstrap-era picks are excluded from the win-rate denominator and labelled as such.
Post-mortems are written by the operator, not generated; they go through review before publishing.
Model versions are semantic and auditable: every settled pick carries the version that produced it.
The calibration gate does not open until the settled sample is large enough to publish a number that is honest.

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