Roster Advice
Model → real add/drop/read decisions for a posted roster (composes with Sleeper sync).
Intelligence engines
CLV Calibration — the engine grades itself
Closing-line-value backtest against nflverse schedules — does the model beat the closing line? Self-grading, never a bet; forward odds stay gated.
How we read it
- CLV — closing line value
- The probability points the model's number beats the closing line on the side it took. Beating the close is the single best leading indicator of a sound process.
- Model vs Close
- Model implied probability for the side, compared to the implied probability of the closing line. The gap between them is the CLV.
- Self-grading, never a bet
- A backtest against nflverse schedules: did the model beat the close or trail it? Forward odds stay gated — this grades the engine, it does not place a wager.
CLV self-grade · 1999–2025 · 6967 games graded
Did the model beat the close?
Backtest CLV self-grade: a simple, transparent model edge graded against the CLOSING spread & total from nflverse schedules over completed games. CLV is how we keep ourselves honest. Self-grade, not a pick — no bets, no live odds.
60 rows
| # | The read | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2025 | 17 | DEN @ KC | spread | KC +13.5 | 94.7% | 52.4% | +0.4228 | Yes | Beat close |
| 2 | 2025 | 17 | NE @ NYJ | spread | NYJ +12.5 | 91.9% | 52.4% | +0.3948 | — | Beat close |
| 3 | 2025 | 18 | LAC @ DEN | spread | LAC +14.5 | 88.5% | 52.4% | +0.3612 | — | Beat close |
| 4 | 2025 | 18 | ARI @ LA | spread | ARI +14.5 | 88.5% | 52.4% | +0.3612 | — | Beat close |
| 5 | 2025 | 18 | MIA @ NE | spread | MIA +14 | 87.1% | 52.4% | +0.3472 | — | Beat close |
| 6 | 2025 | 18 | NYJ @ BUF | spread | NYJ +12.5 | 82.9% | 52.4% | +0.3052 | — | Beat close |
| 7 | 2025 | 18 | TEN @ JAX | spread | TEN +12.5 | 82.9% | 52.4% | +0.3052 | — | Beat close |
| 8 | 2025 | 18 | GB @ MIN | spread | GB +12.5 | 82.9% | 52.4% | +0.3052 | — | Beat close |
| 9 | 2025 | 17 | DAL @ WAS | spread | WAS +8.5 | 80.7% | 52.4% | +0.2828 | Yes | Beat close |
| 10 | 2025 | 17 | LA @ ATL | spread | ATL +7.5 | 77.9% | 52.4% | +0.2548 | Yes | Beat close |
| 11 | 2025 | 17 | DET @ MIN | spread | MIN +7 | 76.5% | 52.4% | +0.2408 | Yes | Beat close |
| 12 | 2025 | 17 | SEA @ CAR | spread | CAR +6.5 | 75.1% | 52.4% | +0.2268 | — | Beat close |
| 13 | 2025 | 18 | CLE @ CIN | spread | CLE +9.5 | 74.5% | 52.4% | +0.2212 | Yes | Beat close |
| 14 | 2025 | 18 | IND @ HOU | spread | IND +9.5 | 74.5% | 52.4% | +0.2212 | Yes | Beat close |
| 15 | 2025 | 17 | TB @ MIA | spread | MIA +5.5 | 72.3% | 52.4% | +0.1988 | Yes | Beat close |
| 16 | 2025 | 18 | BAL @ PIT | spread | PIT +4.5 | 69.5% | 52.4% | +0.1708 | Yes | Beat close |
| 17 | 2025 | 17 | PIT @ CLE | spread | CLE +4.5 | 69.5% | 52.4% | +0.1708 | Yes | Beat close |
| 18 | 2025 | 17 | ARI @ CIN | spread | ARI +7 | 67.5% | 52.4% | +0.1512 | — | Beat close |
| 19 | 2025 | 18 | KC @ LV | spread | LV +3.5 | 66.7% | 52.4% | +0.1428 | Yes | Beat close |
| 20 | 2025 | 17 | JAX @ IND | spread | IND +3.5 | 66.7% | 52.4% | +0.1428 | — | Beat close |
| 21 | 2025 | 18 | DAL @ NYG | spread | NYG +3 | 65.3% | 52.4% | +0.1288 | Yes | Beat close |
| 22 | 2025 | 17 | NYG @ LV | spread | LV +3 | 65.3% | 52.4% | +0.1288 | — | Beat close |
| 23 | 2025 | 18 | SEA @ SF | spread | SF +2.5 | 63.9% | 52.4% | +0.1148 | — | Beat close |
| 24 | 2025 | 17 | NO @ TEN | spread | TEN +1.5 | 61.1% | 52.4% | +0.0868 | — | Beat close |
| 25 | 2025 | 18 | NO @ ATL | spread | NO +4.5 | 60.5% | 52.4% | +0.0812 | Yes | Beat close |
| 26 | 2025 | 18 | DET @ CHI | spread | DET +3.5 | 57.7% | 52.4% | +0.0532 | Yes | Beat close |
| 27 | 2025 | 17 | CHI @ SF | spread | CHI +3.5 | 57.7% | 52.4% | +0.0532 | — | Beat close |
| 28 | 2025 | 18 | WAS @ PHI | spread | WAS +3 | 56.3% | 52.4% | +0.0392 | Yes | Beat close |
| 29 | 2025 | 18 | CAR @ TB | spread | CAR +3 | 56.3% | 52.4% | +0.0392 | Yes | Beat close |
| 30 | 2025 | 17 | PHI @ BUF | spread | PHI +3 | 56.3% | 52.4% | +0.0392 | Yes | Beat close |
| 31 | 2025 | 17 | BAL @ GB | spread | BAL +2.5 | 54.9% | 52.4% | +0.0252 | Yes | Beat close |
| 32 | 2025 | 17 | HOU @ LAC | spread | LAC -1.5 | 52.7% | 52.4% | +0.0028 | — | Beat close |
| 33 | 2025 | 18 | NO @ ATL | total | Under 43.5 | 52.4% | 52.4% | 0.0000 | — | At close |
| 34 | 2025 | 18 | NYJ @ BUF | total | Over 39.5 | 52.4% | 52.4% | 0.0000 | — | At close |
| 35 | 2025 | 18 | DET @ CHI | total | Under 51.5 | 52.4% | 52.4% | 0.0000 | — | At close |
| 36 | 2025 | 18 | CLE @ CIN | total | Under 47.5 | 52.4% | 52.4% | 0.0000 | — | At close |
| 37 | 2025 | 18 | LAC @ DEN | total | Under 37.5 | 52.4% | 52.4% | 0.0000 | — | At close |
| 38 | 2025 | 18 | IND @ HOU | total | Over 37.5 | 52.4% | 52.4% | 0.0000 | — | At close |
| 39 | 2025 | 18 | TEN @ JAX | total | Over 46.5 | 52.4% | 52.4% | 0.0000 | — | At close |
| 40 | 2025 | 18 | ARI @ LA | total | Over 49.5 | 52.4% | 52.4% | 0.0000 | — | At close |
| 41 | 2025 | 18 | KC @ LV | total | Under 36.5 | 52.4% | 52.4% | 0.0000 | — | At close |
| 42 | 2025 | 18 | GB @ MIN | total | Under 37.5 | 52.4% | 52.4% | 0.0000 | — | At close |
| 43 | 2025 | 18 | MIA @ NE | total | Over 44.5 | 52.4% | 52.4% | 0.0000 | — | At close |
| 44 | 2025 | 18 | DAL @ NYG | total | Over 50.5 | 52.4% | 52.4% | 0.0000 | — | At close |
| 45 | 2025 | 18 | WAS @ PHI | total | Over 38.5 | 52.4% | 52.4% | 0.0000 | — | At close |
| 46 | 2025 | 18 | BAL @ PIT | total | Over 41.5 | 52.4% | 52.4% | 0.0000 | — | At close |
| 47 | 2025 | 18 | SEA @ SF | total | Under 47.5 | 52.4% | 52.4% | 0.0000 | — | At close |
| 48 | 2025 | 18 | CAR @ TB | total | Under 43.5 | 52.4% | 52.4% | 0.0000 | — | At close |
| 49 | 2025 | 17 | DAL @ WAS | total | Over 50.5 | 52.4% | 52.4% | 0.0000 | — | At close |
| 50 | 2025 | 17 | DET @ MIN | total | Under 45.5 | 52.4% | 52.4% | 0.0000 | — | At close |
| 51 | 2025 | 17 | DEN @ KC | total | Under 37.5 | 52.4% | 52.4% | 0.0000 | — | At close |
| 52 | 2025 | 17 | SEA @ CAR | total | Under 42.5 | 52.4% | 52.4% | 0.0000 | — | At close |
| 53 | 2025 | 17 | ARI @ CIN | total | Under 52.5 | 52.4% | 52.4% | 0.0000 | — | At close |
| 54 | 2025 | 17 | PIT @ CLE | total | Under 35.5 | 52.4% | 52.4% | 0.0000 | — | At close |
| 55 | 2025 | 17 | BAL @ GB | total | Over 38.5 | 52.4% | 52.4% | 0.0000 | — | At close |
| 56 | 2025 | 17 | JAX @ IND | total | Under 48.5 | 52.4% | 52.4% | 0.0000 | — | At close |
| 57 | 2025 | 17 | HOU @ LAC | total | Under 40.5 | 52.4% | 52.4% | 0.0000 | — | At close |
| 58 | 2025 | 17 | NYG @ LV | total | Over 40.5 | 52.4% | 52.4% | 0.0000 | — | At close |
| 59 | 2025 | 17 | TB @ MIA | total | Under 44.5 | 52.4% | 52.4% | 0.0000 | — | At close |
| 60 | 2025 | 17 | NE @ NYJ | total | Over 42.5 | 52.4% | 52.4% | 0.0000 | — | At close |
Backtest CLV self-grade: a simple, transparent model edge graded against the CLOSING spread & total from nflverse schedules over completed games. CLV is how we keep ourselves honest. Self-grade, not a pick — no bets, no live odds.
Data via nflverse (nflverse-data), licensed CC BY 4.0. How we source data
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