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Beat the Close: does the number out-run the market?

An illustrative baseline model backtested against public closing lines: a demonstration of how closing-line value is computed and graded, not our pick engine's record (that stays gated until it can be honestly published). Self-grading, never a bet; forward odds stay gated.

How we read it

CLV: closing line value

The probability points the model's number beats the closing line on the side it took. Beating the close is the single best leading indicator of a sound process.

Model vs Close

Model implied probability for the side, compared to the implied probability of the closing line. The gap between them is the CLV.

Self-grading, never a bet

A backtest against nflverse schedules: did the model beat the close or trail it? Forward odds stay gated. This grades the engine, it does not place a wager.

for PRO members only

Beat the Close: does the number out-run the market?

Beat the Close: does the number out-run the market? is a Pro-tier analytics engine. This is the same data served by the premium /api/intelligence/clv endpoint, gated for Pro and Elite members.

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Data via nflverse (nflverse-data), licensed CC BY 4.0. How we source data

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Rushing Efficiency

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Receiving Opportunity

Air yards and target share combined into one opportunity score, with a clear buy / sell read.