Roster Advice
Model → real add/drop/read decisions for a posted roster (composes with Sleeper sync).
Intelligence engines
CLV Calibration: proving the method
An illustrative baseline model backtested against nflverse closing lines: a demonstration of how closing-line value is computed and graded, not our pick engine's record (that stays gated until it can be honestly published). Self-grading, never a bet; forward odds stay gated.
How we read it
CLV: closing line value
The probability points the model's number beats the closing line on the side it took. Beating the close is the single best leading indicator of a sound process.
Model vs Close
Model implied probability for the side, compared to the implied probability of the closing line. The gap between them is the CLV.
Self-grading, never a bet
A backtest against nflverse schedules: did the model beat the close or trail it? Forward odds stay gated. This grades the engine, it does not place a wager.
Illustrative CLV self-grade · 1999-2025 · 6967 games graded
Did the illustrative model beat the close?
Backtest CLV self-grade: a simple, transparent model edge graded against the CLOSING spread & total from nflverse schedules over completed games. CLV is how we keep ourselves honest. Self-grade, not a pick: no bets, no live odds.
60 rows
| # | The read | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2025 | 17 | DEN @ KC | spread | KC +13.5 | 94.7% | 52.4% | +0.4228 | Yes | Beat close |
| 2 | 2025 | 17 | NE @ NYJ | spread | NYJ +12.5 | 91.9% | 52.4% | +0.3948 | — | Beat close |
| 3 | 2025 | 18 | LAC @ DEN | spread | LAC +14.5 | 88.5% | 52.4% | +0.3612 | — | Beat close |
| 4 | 2025 | 18 | ARI @ LA | spread | ARI +14.5 | 88.5% | 52.4% | +0.3612 | — | Beat close |
| 5 | 2025 | 18 | MIA @ NE | spread | MIA +14 | 87.1% | 52.4% | +0.3472 | — | Beat close |
| 6 | 2025 | 18 | NYJ @ BUF | spread | NYJ +12.5 | 82.9% | 52.4% | +0.3052 | — | Beat close |
| 7 | 2025 | 18 | TEN @ JAX | spread | TEN +12.5 | 82.9% | 52.4% | +0.3052 | — | Beat close |
| 8 | 2025 | 18 | GB @ MIN | spread | GB +12.5 | 82.9% | 52.4% | +0.3052 | — | Beat close |
| 9 | 2025 | 17 | DAL @ WAS | spread | WAS +8.5 | 80.7% | 52.4% | +0.2828 | Yes | Beat close |
| 10 | 2025 | 17 | LA @ ATL | spread | ATL +7.5 | 77.9% | 52.4% | +0.2548 | Yes | Beat close |
| 11 | 2025 | 17 | DET @ MIN | spread | MIN +7 | 76.5% | 52.4% | +0.2408 | Yes | Beat close |
| 12 | 2025 | 17 | SEA @ CAR | spread | CAR +6.5 | 75.1% | 52.4% | +0.2268 | — | Beat close |
| 13 | 2025 | 18 | CLE @ CIN | spread | CLE +9.5 | 74.5% | 52.4% | +0.2212 | Yes | Beat close |
| 14 | 2025 | 18 | IND @ HOU | spread | IND +9.5 | 74.5% | 52.4% | +0.2212 | Yes | Beat close |
| 15 | 2025 | 17 | TB @ MIA | spread | MIA +5.5 | 72.3% | 52.4% | +0.1988 | Yes | Beat close |
| 16 | 2025 | 18 | BAL @ PIT | spread | PIT +4.5 | 69.5% | 52.4% | +0.1708 | Yes | Beat close |
| 17 | 2025 | 17 | PIT @ CLE | spread | CLE +4.5 | 69.5% | 52.4% | +0.1708 | Yes | Beat close |
| 18 | 2025 | 17 | ARI @ CIN | spread | ARI +7 | 67.5% | 52.4% | +0.1512 | — | Beat close |
| 19 | 2025 | 18 | KC @ LV | spread | LV +3.5 | 66.7% | 52.4% | +0.1428 | Yes | Beat close |
| 20 | 2025 | 17 | JAX @ IND | spread | IND +3.5 | 66.7% | 52.4% | +0.1428 | — | Beat close |
| 21 | 2025 | 18 | DAL @ NYG | spread | NYG +3 | 65.3% | 52.4% | +0.1288 | Yes | Beat close |
| 22 | 2025 | 17 | NYG @ LV | spread | LV +3 | 65.3% | 52.4% | +0.1288 | — | Beat close |
| 23 | 2025 | 18 | SEA @ SF | spread | SF +2.5 | 63.9% | 52.4% | +0.1148 | — | Beat close |
| 24 | 2025 | 17 | NO @ TEN | spread | TEN +1.5 | 61.1% | 52.4% | +0.0868 | — | Beat close |
| 25 | 2025 | 18 | NO @ ATL | spread | NO +4.5 | 60.5% | 52.4% | +0.0812 | Yes | Beat close |
| 26 | 2025 | 18 | DET @ CHI | spread | DET +3.5 | 57.7% | 52.4% | +0.0532 | Yes | Beat close |
| 27 | 2025 | 17 | CHI @ SF | spread | CHI +3.5 | 57.7% | 52.4% | +0.0532 | — | Beat close |
| 28 | 2025 | 18 | WAS @ PHI | spread | WAS +3 | 56.3% | 52.4% | +0.0392 | Yes | Beat close |
| 29 | 2025 | 18 | CAR @ TB | spread | CAR +3 | 56.3% | 52.4% | +0.0392 | Yes | Beat close |
| 30 | 2025 | 17 | PHI @ BUF | spread | PHI +3 | 56.3% | 52.4% | +0.0392 | Yes | Beat close |
| 31 | 2025 | 17 | BAL @ GB | spread | BAL +2.5 | 54.9% | 52.4% | +0.0252 | Yes | Beat close |
| 32 | 2025 | 17 | HOU @ LAC | spread | LAC -1.5 | 52.7% | 52.4% | +0.0028 | — | Beat close |
| 33 | 2025 | 18 | NO @ ATL | total | Under 43.5 | 52.4% | 52.4% | 0.0000 | — | At close |
| 34 | 2025 | 18 | NYJ @ BUF | total | Over 39.5 | 52.4% | 52.4% | 0.0000 | — | At close |
| 35 | 2025 | 18 | DET @ CHI | total | Under 51.5 | 52.4% | 52.4% | 0.0000 | — | At close |
| 36 | 2025 | 18 | CLE @ CIN | total | Under 47.5 | 52.4% | 52.4% | 0.0000 | — | At close |
| 37 | 2025 | 18 | LAC @ DEN | total | Under 37.5 | 52.4% | 52.4% | 0.0000 | — | At close |
| 38 | 2025 | 18 | IND @ HOU | total | Over 37.5 | 52.4% | 52.4% | 0.0000 | — | At close |
| 39 | 2025 | 18 | TEN @ JAX | total | Over 46.5 | 52.4% | 52.4% | 0.0000 | — | At close |
| 40 | 2025 | 18 | ARI @ LA | total | Over 49.5 | 52.4% | 52.4% | 0.0000 | — | At close |
| 41 | 2025 | 18 | KC @ LV | total | Under 36.5 | 52.4% | 52.4% | 0.0000 | — | At close |
| 42 | 2025 | 18 | GB @ MIN | total | Under 37.5 | 52.4% | 52.4% | 0.0000 | — | At close |
| 43 | 2025 | 18 | MIA @ NE | total | Over 44.5 | 52.4% | 52.4% | 0.0000 | — | At close |
| 44 | 2025 | 18 | DAL @ NYG | total | Over 50.5 | 52.4% | 52.4% | 0.0000 | — | At close |
| 45 | 2025 | 18 | WAS @ PHI | total | Over 38.5 | 52.4% | 52.4% | 0.0000 | — | At close |
| 46 | 2025 | 18 | BAL @ PIT | total | Over 41.5 | 52.4% | 52.4% | 0.0000 | — | At close |
| 47 | 2025 | 18 | SEA @ SF | total | Under 47.5 | 52.4% | 52.4% | 0.0000 | — | At close |
| 48 | 2025 | 18 | CAR @ TB | total | Under 43.5 | 52.4% | 52.4% | 0.0000 | — | At close |
| 49 | 2025 | 17 | DAL @ WAS | total | Over 50.5 | 52.4% | 52.4% | 0.0000 | — | At close |
| 50 | 2025 | 17 | DET @ MIN | total | Under 45.5 | 52.4% | 52.4% | 0.0000 | — | At close |
| 51 | 2025 | 17 | DEN @ KC | total | Under 37.5 | 52.4% | 52.4% | 0.0000 | — | At close |
| 52 | 2025 | 17 | SEA @ CAR | total | Under 42.5 | 52.4% | 52.4% | 0.0000 | — | At close |
| 53 | 2025 | 17 | ARI @ CIN | total | Under 52.5 | 52.4% | 52.4% | 0.0000 | — | At close |
| 54 | 2025 | 17 | PIT @ CLE | total | Under 35.5 | 52.4% | 52.4% | 0.0000 | — | At close |
| 55 | 2025 | 17 | BAL @ GB | total | Over 38.5 | 52.4% | 52.4% | 0.0000 | — | At close |
| 56 | 2025 | 17 | JAX @ IND | total | Under 48.5 | 52.4% | 52.4% | 0.0000 | — | At close |
| 57 | 2025 | 17 | HOU @ LAC | total | Under 40.5 | 52.4% | 52.4% | 0.0000 | — | At close |
| 58 | 2025 | 17 | NYG @ LV | total | Over 40.5 | 52.4% | 52.4% | 0.0000 | — | At close |
| 59 | 2025 | 17 | TB @ MIA | total | Under 44.5 | 52.4% | 52.4% | 0.0000 | — | At close |
| 60 | 2025 | 17 | NE @ NYJ | total | Over 42.5 | 52.4% | 52.4% | 0.0000 | — | At close |
Backtest CLV self-grade: a simple, transparent model edge graded against the CLOSING spread & total from nflverse schedules over completed games. CLV is how we keep ourselves honest. Self-grade, not a pick: no bets, no live odds.
Data via nflverse (nflverse-data), licensed CC BY 4.0. How we source data
More engines & APIs5 engines without a standalone boardPOST-only, founder-gated, or rendered on the player boards under /players. Expand to browse them.
Graded Pool
Composes the model + xFP + team environment (real schemeFit from neutral-script offensive EPA) + QB-forward passing signal into a real graded pool that drives every fantasy tool when the founder enables it.
QB Consensus
ESPN QBR (results) vs Next Gen CPOE (accuracy), triangulated. Disagreement surfaced, not averaged.
Rushing Efficiency
RYOE/att vs volume with stacked-box context: bell-cow / buy-low / volume-dependent.
Receiving Opportunity (WOPR)
Air-yards & target share → WOPR, with opportunity-vs-production buy/sell.