Intelligence engines

Route Rate — targets per route run (proxy)

A snaps×dropbacks proxy for targets per route run — high TPRR on low routes is the breakout signal; empty volume is the fade. Labelled a proxy (true routes are PFF-gated).

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How we read it

TPRR — targets per route run (proxy): A snaps × dropbacks proxy for how often a receiver is targeted on the routes he runs. Labelled a proxy — true routes are PFF-gated.
Breakout — high TPRR on low routes: A high target rate on a small route sample is the breakout signal: efficient when used, with room for the volume to follow.
Fade — empty volume: Plenty of routes but a thin target rate is the fade — on the field without earning looks. Steady sits in between.

Route-rate leaders · 2024 through week 18

Targets per route run (proxy)

Targets per route run (TPRR) as an honest PROXY: routes ≈ snap-share × team dropbacks (true routes are PFF-gated). High TPRR on low routes is a breakout/buy; empty volume (low TPRR, high routes) is a fade. Usage context, not a point projection.

Pos40 rows

#
1	Puka Nacua	LA	WR	254	106	0.418	100	Steady
2	Rashee Rice	KC	WR	77	29	0.379	100	Breakout
3	Josh Downs	IND	WR	306	107	0.350	99	Steady
4	Khalil Shakir	BUF	WR	293	100	0.342	99	Steady
5	Malik Nabers	NYG	WR	511	170	0.333	99	Steady
6	A.J. Brown	PHI	WR	297	97	0.326	99	Steady
7	Nico Collins	HOU	WR	304	99	0.326	98	Steady
8	Dalton Kincaid	BUF	TE	232	75	0.324	98	Steady
9	Dante Pettis	NO	WR	87	28	0.323	98	Breakout
10	Marvin Mims	DEN	WR	162	52	0.320	98	Breakout
11	Evan Engram	JAX	TE	201	64	0.318	97	Steady
12	Mike Evans	TB	WR	351	110	0.314	97	Steady
13	Jonnu Smith	MIA	TE	355	111	0.313	97	Steady
14	CeeDee Lamb	DAL	WR	490	152	0.310	97	Steady
15	Davante Adams	NYJ	WR	369	114	0.309	96	Steady
16	Jordan Mims	NO	RB	59	18	0.308	96	Breakout
17	Tanner Hudson	CIN	TE	76	23	0.304	96	Breakout
18	Zay Flowers	BAL	WR	385	116	0.302	95	Steady
19	Jauan Jennings	SF	WR	374	113	0.302	96	Steady
20	Diontae Johnson	CAR	WR	193	58	0.301	95	Steady
21	Trey McBride	ARI	TE	495	147	0.297	95	Steady
22	Adonai Mitchell	IND	WR	185	55	0.297	95	Steady
23	Drake London	ATL	WR	535	158	0.295	94	Steady
24	Taysom Hill	NO	TE	106	31	0.293	94	Breakout
25	Cooper Kupp	LA	WR	344	100	0.291	94	Steady
26	Ladd McConkey	LAC	WR	386	112	0.290	94	Steady
27	Brian Thomas	JAX	WR	461	133	0.289	93	Steady
28	Rashid Shaheed	NO	WR	144	41	0.285	93	Breakout
29	Kavontae Turpin	DAL	WR	183	52	0.285	93	Steady
30	Wan'Dale Robinson	NYG	WR	492	140	0.285	93	Steady
31	Chris Godwin	TB	WR	221	62	0.281	92	Steady
32	Tee Higgins	CIN	WR	388	109	0.281	92	Steady
33	Chris Olave	NO	WR	157	44	0.280	92	Breakout
34	Odell Beckham	MIA	WR	68	19	0.279	92	Breakout
35	Justin Jefferson	MIN	WR	559	154	0.276	91	Steady
36	George Pickens	PIT	WR	375	103	0.275	91	Steady
37	DeAndre Hopkins	KC	WR	215	59	0.274	91	Steady
38	Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET	WR	516	141	0.273	90	Steady
39	Tutu Atwell	LA	WR	227	62	0.273	90	Steady
40	Dontayvion Wicks	GB	WR	279	76	0.272	90	Steady

Data via nflverse (nflverse-data), licensed CC BY 4.0. How we source data

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