Free calculators / EV
EV calculator
Expected value tells you what a bet is worth on average, per dollar staked, given your own estimate of the true win probability. Enter a probability and a price — the tool does no probability estimation of its own; that part is on you.
Expected value
+$0.050 per $1 staked
+$5.000 per $100 staked. Breakeven probability at this price is 52.4%.
The math
EV = p × decimal − 1 EV = 0.5500 × 1.9091 − 1 = 0.0500
Honest note: EV is only as good as the probability you put in. This tool does not estimate that probability for you and does not claim to predict any outcome — it just does the arithmetic once you supply a number.
How it's computed
Stake $1 at decimal price d. Win and you receive d back (profit d − 1); lose and you're down the $1 stake. Weighting each outcome by your probability p gives the expected value:
Derivation
EV = p·(d − 1) + (1 − p)·(−1) = p·d − 1
EV is exactly zero when your probability equals the price's own implied probability (1/d) — that's the breakeven point the calculator shows next to the result.
Sports wagering is real risk. Only stake what you can afford to lose without changing your week. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.