The Glass Ledger
The record, computed in the open.
Every book-priced pick is recorded before kickoff, sealed into a hash-chained record, and never rewritten after the fact. This page leads with separation — whether higher-confidence picks settle more often than lower-confidence ones — and closing-line value, not a single headline stat. No substantiated seasons yet. The ledger chain has not accumulated enough live, walk-forward-provenanced entries to publish a single metric yet — every cell on this page still requires a coverage denominator, a Wilson or Clopper-Pearson lower bound, CLV backing, and walk-forward provenance before it renders. Real data wiring arrives when the chain has substantiated entries to show.
Specification
No number renders here without all four.
Coverage
How many eligible picks actually fired, shown as a fraction — never a bare rate floating free of its sample.
Lower bound
The conservative edge of a Wilson or Clopper-Pearson interval, not the flattering point estimate.
CLV backing
Graded against the closing line — the one benchmark that can't be cherry-picked after kickoff.
Walk-forward lineage
Which model version produced it, stamped and hash-linked at generation time, never restated after the fact.
The promise: no number renders here without coverage, a Wilson or Clopper-Pearson lower bound, CLV backing, and walk-forward lineage.
At a glance
SU% · latest season
Insufficient record — not shownNot yet substantiated (needs coverage + lower bound + CLV + provenance).CLV · latest season
Insufficient record — not shownNot yet substantiated (needs coverage + lower bound + CLV + provenance).Toward significance · LCB clears breakeven
Insufficient record — not shownNot yet substantiated (needs coverage + lower bound + CLV + provenance).Confidence tier
The record defaults to all picks, every tier, every sport we cover — a transparency tool, never a cherry-pick.
Pre-kickoff feature hash
No pre-kickoff feature hash is sealed yet.
By season
| Season | SU% | ATS vs. Close | CLV | MAE | Coverage | LCB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No seasons recorded yet. This table fills in as settled picks accumulate in the ledger chain — nothing is backfilled or estimated. | ||||||
Reliability & separation
The reliability curve (confidence band vs. settled outcome) renders here once there is a substantiated sample to compute it from. It is a separation read — do higher-confidence bands settle more often than lower ones — not a probability score, since the Edge Index is a ranking signal rather than a forecast probability.
Progress toward a substantiated sample
A result only counts once its lower bound clears breakeven with real coverage and CLV backing behind it. This panel tracks distance to that bar honestly, not a projected arrival date.
Lower bound clears breakeven
Insufficient record — not shownNot yet substantiated (needs coverage + lower bound + CLV + provenance).Sports wagering is real risk. Only stake what you can afford to lose without changing your week. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.