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16-5 (76.2%) · +10.45u

Locked props

PlayModel win probMarket probEdgeReadStatus
Devontez Walker (BAL) Receiving Yards OVER 0.5
BAL@BUF

BAL WR (GP=5, 2026Avg=15.0, Realloc=1.00x, WOPR=0.22, Open=1.00x, Funnel=BALANCED_S): Pure internal mean 30.3 (median 30.4) vs DK 0.5

94.7%50.0%44.7%95/100PUBLISH
Sione Vaki (DET) Rushing Yards OVER 4.5
MIN@DET

DET RB (GP=6, 2026Avg=9.3, Realloc=1.05x, C285=-0.021): Pure internal mean 27.7 (median 27.4) vs DK 4.5

91.9%50.0%41.9%92/100PUBLISH
Ray Davis (BUF) Rushing Yards OVER 4.5
BAL@BUF

BUF RB (GP=5, 2026Avg=2.4, Realloc=1.00x, C285=+0.007): Pure internal mean 25.8 (median 25.6) vs DK 4.5

90.2%50.0%40.2%90/100PUBLISH
Dyami Brown (WAS) Receiving Yards OVER 12.5
PHI@WAS

WAS WR (GP=6, 2026Avg=15.7, Realloc=1.34x, WOPR=0.27, Open=1.00x, Funnel=WR_PERIMET): Pure internal mean 32.3 (median 32.2) vs DK 12.5

85.3%50.0%35.3%85/100PUBLISH
Jaylen Wright (MIA) Rushing Attempts OVER 4.5
NE@MIA

MIA RB (GP=5, 2026Avg=4.0, Realloc=1.38x): Pure internal mean 8.3 (median 8.1) vs DK 4.5

84.4%50.0%34.4%84/100PUBLISH
Dohnte Meyers (CIN) Receiving Yards OVER 13.5
TEN@CIN

CIN WR (GP=6, 2026Avg=23.5, Realloc=1.09x, WOPR=0.17, Open=0.97x, Funnel=BALANCED_S): Pure internal mean 35.6 (median 35.5) vs DK 13.5

84.2%50.0%34.2%84/100PUBLISH
Drew Sample (CIN) Receiving Yards OVER 7.5
TEN@CIN

CIN TE (GP=4, 2026Avg=12.0, Realloc=1.38x, WOPR=0.13, Open=1.00x, Funnel=BALANCED_S): Pure internal mean 26.6 (median 26.6) vs DK 7.5

84.1%50.0%34.1%84/100PUBLISH
Isaac TeSlaa (DET) Receiving Yards OVER 17.5
MIN@DET

DET WR (GP=6, 2026Avg=32.8, Realloc=1.10x, WOPR=0.24, Open=1.03x, Funnel=BALANCED_S): Pure internal mean 37.9 (median 37.6) vs DK 17.5

83.3%50.0%33.3%83/100PUBLISH
Efton Chism III (NE) Receiving Yards OVER 15.5
NE@MIA

NE WR (GP=6, 2026Avg=19.0, Realloc=1.38x, WOPR=0.21, Open=1.00x, Funnel=TE_MIDDLE_): Pure internal mean 36.0 (median 35.9) vs DK 15.5

82.5%50.0%32.6%83/100PUBLISH
J.K. Dobbins (DEN) Rushing Yards OVER 21.5
KC@DEN

DEN RB (GP=7, 2026Avg=28.7, Realloc=1.36x, C285=+0.005): Pure internal mean 41.4 (median 40.8) vs DK 21.5

82.3%50.0%32.3%82/100PUBLISH
Michael Mayer (LV) Receptions OVER 2.5
LV@NYJ

LV TE (GP=7, 2026Avg=4.4, Realloc=1.11x, WOPR=0.30, Open=1.05x, Funnel=BALANCED_S): Pure internal mean 4.5 (median 4.4) vs DK 2.5

82.1%50.0%32.1%82/100PUBLISH
Treylon Burks (WAS) Receiving Yards OVER 21.5
PHI@WAS

WAS WR (GP=5, 2026Avg=30.4, Realloc=1.34x, WOPR=0.36, Open=1.00x, Funnel=WR_PERIMET): Pure internal mean 44.9 (median 44.8) vs DK 21.5

81.7%50.0%31.7%82/100PUBLISH
Kalif Raymond (CHI) Receiving Yards OVER 21.5
CHI@SEA

CHI WR (GP=7, 2026Avg=34.9, Realloc=1.00x, WOPR=0.29, Open=1.07x, Funnel=RB_CHECKDO): Pure internal mean 39.5 (median 39.2) vs DK 21.5

78.1%50.0%28.1%78/100PUBLISH
Tyler Goodson (DAL) Rushing Yards OVER 21.5
ARI@DAL

DAL RB (GP=4, 2026Avg=18.0, Realloc=1.05x, C285=+0.008): Pure internal mean 35.6 (median 35.1) vs DK 21.5

77.8%50.0%27.8%78/100PUBLISH
Jahan Dotson (ATL) Receiving Yards OVER 21.5
ATL@TB

ATL WR (GP=7, 2026Avg=34.6, Realloc=1.09x, WOPR=0.48, Open=1.05x, Funnel=BALANCED_S): Pure internal mean 38.4 (median 38.1) vs DK 21.5

77.6%50.0%27.6%78/100PUBLISH
Chris Godwin Jr. (TB) Receptions OVER 3.5
ATL@TB

TB WR (GP=7, 2026Avg=3.9, Realloc=1.38x, WOPR=0.44, Open=1.07x, Funnel=BALANCED_S): Pure internal mean 5.1 (median 5.1) vs DK 3.5

77.2%50.0%27.2%77/100PUBLISH
Jake Ferguson (DAL) Receiving Yards OVER 14.5
ARI@DAL

DAL TE (GP=7, 2026Avg=16.4, Realloc=1.30x, WOPR=0.22, Open=0.99x, Funnel=BALANCED_S): Pure internal mean 27.3 (median 27.4) vs DK 14.5

76.8%50.0%26.8%77/100PUBLISH
Quinshon Judkins (CLE) Receptions OVER 1.5
CLE@PIT

CLE RB (GP=6, 2026Avg=3.2, Realloc=1.06x, WOPR=0.17, Open=1.04x, Funnel=RB_CHECKDO): Pure internal mean 3.1 (median 3.0) vs DK 1.5

76.5%50.0%26.5%77/100PUBLISH

360° watchlist

Bet only at or better than the trigger. These are not locked official plays.

PlayModel win probMarket probEdgeReadTrigger
LAC@LA 1Q Total UNDER 9.5
LAC@LA

@locktalkbets 1Q Stop/Script kernel (19.26% 2026 Q1 share) -> pathwise median 7.4 vs ref 9.5

70.4%0.0%0.0%70/100ABSTAIN · -197
MIN@DET 1Q Total UNDER 9.5
MIN@DET

@locktalkbets 1Q Stop/Script kernel (19.26% 2026 Q1 share) -> pathwise median 7.4 vs ref 9.5

69.8%0.0%0.0%70/100ABSTAIN · -192
LA 1H Winner (-200)
LAC@LA

Scores24 LAC lost 1H in 8/9 — Single-side trend quote (-200, no opp_odds) logged as ABSTAIN/PASS per strict two-way de-vig gate

69.0%0.0%0.0%69/100ABSTAIN · -186
CHI@SEA 1Q Total UNDER 9.5
CHI@SEA

@locktalkbets 1Q Stop/Script kernel (19.26% 2026 Q1 share) -> pathwise median 7.5 vs ref 9.5

68.0%0.0%0.0%68/100ABSTAIN · -178
JAX 1H Winner (-294)
IND@JAX

Scores24 JAX 1H 5/5 home vs IND — Single-side trend quote (-294, no opp_odds) logged as ABSTAIN/PASS per strict two-way de-vig gate

66.2%0.0%0.0%66/100ABSTAIN · -164
PIT 1H Winner (-149)
CLE@PIT

Scores24 PIT 1H 5/5 home vs CLE — Single-side trend quote (-149, no opp_odds) logged as ABSTAIN/PASS per strict two-way de-vig gate

66.0%0.0%0.0%66/100ABSTAIN · -163
PIT 2H Winner (-127)
CLE@PIT

Scores24 PIT 2H 9/9 home vs CLE — Single-side trend quote (-127, no opp_odds) logged as ABSTAIN/PASS per strict two-way de-vig gate

65.9%0.0%0.0%66/100ABSTAIN · -162
JAX 2Q Winner (-149)
IND@JAX

Scores24 JAX 2Q 10/10 home vs IND — Single-side trend quote (-149, no opp_odds) logged as ABSTAIN/PASS per strict two-way de-vig gate

64.8%0.0%0.0%65/100ABSTAIN · -155
LV@NYJ 1Q Total UNDER 9.5
LV@NYJ

@locktalkbets 1Q Stop/Script kernel (19.26% 2026 Q1 share) -> pathwise median 8.1 vs ref 9.5

63.2%0.0%0.0%63/100ABSTAIN · -145
DAL Team Total UNDER 33.5 (-169)
ARI@DAL

Scores24 DAL TT <33.5 in 14/15 vs ARI — Single-side trend quote (-169, no opp_odds) logged as ABSTAIN/PASS per strict two-way de-vig gate

63.1%0.0%0.0%63/100ABSTAIN · -144
Will Reichard (MIN) Field Goals Made OVER 1.5
MIN@DET

Blended FGM lambda=2.35 (2026 Avg=3.00, Sim4thFG=1.74, RZ TD%=19.5%)

68.1%0.0%0.0%68/100ABSTAIN · -178
Chase McLaughlin (TB) Field Goals Made OVER 1.5
ATL@TB

Blended FGM lambda=2.33 (2026 Avg=2.29, Sim4thFG=1.82, RZ TD%=15.8%)

67.7%0.0%0.0%68/100ABSTAIN · -175
Chris Boswell (PIT) Field Goals Made OVER 1.5
CLE@PIT

Blended FGM lambda=2.31 (2026 Avg=2.29, Sim4thFG=1.78, RZ TD%=14.8%)

67.2%0.0%0.0%67/100ABSTAIN · -171
Spencer Shrader (IND) Field Goals Made OVER 1.5
IND@JAX

Blended FGM lambda=2.30 (2026 Avg=2.71, Sim4thFG=1.33, RZ TD%=18.5%)

66.9%0.0%0.0%67/100ABSTAIN · -170
Matt Gay (LV) Field Goals Made OVER 1.5
LV@NYJ

Blended FGM lambda=2.22 (2026 Avg=2.43, Sim4thFG=1.45, RZ TD%=15.9%)

65.0%0.0%0.0%65/100ABSTAIN · -157
Chad Ryland (ARI) Field Goals Made OVER 1.5
ARI@DAL

Blended FGM lambda=2.17 (2026 Avg=2.43, Sim4thFG=1.35, RZ TD%=12.6%)

63.8%0.0%0.0%64/100ABSTAIN · -149
Alex Singleton (DEN LB) Total Tackles+Ast UNDER 12.5
KC@DEN

C-300 @rynoonan tackle funnel: 52.9 opp plays -> E[Tackles]=9.79 vs ref 12.5

81.1%0.0%0.0%81/100ABSTAIN · -336
Nate Landman (LA LB) Total Tackles+Ast UNDER 8.5
LAC@LA

C-300 @rynoonan tackle funnel: 40.2 opp plays -> E[Tackles]=6.36 vs ref 8.5

80.8%0.0%0.0%81/100ABSTAIN · -331
Demetrius Knight Jr. (CIN LB) Total Tackles+Ast UNDER 8.5
TEN@CIN

C-300 @rynoonan tackle funnel: 44.0 opp plays -> E[Tackles]=6.82 vs ref 8.5

75.2%0.0%0.0%75/100ABSTAIN · -247
Payton Wilson (PIT LB) Total Tackles+Ast UNDER 8.5
CLE@PIT

C-300 @rynoonan tackle funnel: 45.0 opp plays -> E[Tackles]=7.06 vs ref 8.5

72.1%0.0%0.0%72/100ABSTAIN · -214
Akeem Davis-Gaither (IND LB) Total Tackles+Ast OVER 8.5
IND@JAX

C-300 @rynoonan tackle funnel: 66.0 opp plays -> E[Tackles]=10.36 vs ref 8.5

70.6%0.0%0.0%71/100ABSTAIN · -199
Jamien Sherwood (NYJ LB) Total Tackles+Ast UNDER 7.5
LV@NYJ

C-300 @rynoonan tackle funnel: 45.9 opp plays -> E[Tackles]=6.48 vs ref 7.5

67.6%0.0%0.0%68/100ABSTAIN · -175
Roquan Smith (BAL LB) Total Tackles+Ast OVER 7.5
BAL@BUF

C-300 @rynoonan tackle funnel: 58.8 opp plays -> E[Tackles]=8.86 vs ref 7.5

65.9%0.0%0.0%66/100ABSTAIN · -162
Jack Campbell (DET LB) Total Tackles+Ast UNDER 9.5
MIN@DET

C-300 @rynoonan tackle funnel: 49.9 opp plays -> E[Tackles]=8.52 vs ref 9.5

65.0%0.0%0.0%65/100ABSTAIN · -157
Bhayshul Tuten (JAX) Anytime TD
IND@JAX

Low QB vulture (11.8%) -> RB1 goal-line share=88.1%, P(1+ TD)=89.4%

89.4%0.0%0.0%89/100ABSTAIN · -584
Javonte Williams (DAL) Anytime TD
ARI@DAL

Low QB vulture (6.9%) -> RB1 goal-line share=93.1%, P(1+ TD)=83.8%

83.8%0.0%0.0%84/100ABSTAIN · -394
Kenneth Walker III (KC) Anytime TD
KC@DEN

Low QB vulture (9.6%) -> RB1 goal-line share=90.4%, P(1+ TD)=80.2%

80.2%0.0%0.0%80/100ABSTAIN · -321
Kyren Williams (LA) Anytime TD
LAC@LA

Low QB vulture (9.6%) -> RB1 goal-line share=90.4%, P(1+ TD)=76.6%

76.6%0.0%0.0%77/100ABSTAIN · -265
Rachaad White (WAS) Anytime TD
PHI@WAS

Low QB vulture (14.4%) -> RB1 goal-line share=85.6%, P(1+ TD)=71.9%

71.9%0.0%0.0%72/100ABSTAIN · -212
Braelon Allen (NYJ) Anytime TD
LV@NYJ

Low QB vulture (11.2%) -> RB1 goal-line share=88.8%, P(1+ TD)=69.4%

69.4%0.0%0.0%69/100ABSTAIN · -189

Pass — do not bet

PlayModel win probMarket probEdgeReadStatus
CHI +3.0
CHI@SEA

Pure internal median CHI -4.71 vs DK +3.0 (Williams -0.026 / Darnold +0.012)

62.0%48.9%13.1%62/100PASS — DO NOT BET
KC@DEN OVER 40.5
KC@DEN

Pure internal median total 48.84 vs DK 40.5 (pace 27.27s) — reconciled to PASS per writeup agreement gate

62.6%50.4%12.2%63/100PASS — DO NOT BET
PHI@WAS OVER 40.5
PHI@WAS

Pure internal median total 48.13 vs DK 40.5 (pace 26.09s) — reconciled to PASS per writeup agreement gate

59.4%50.0%9.4%59/100PASS — DO NOT BET
CHI@SEA UNDER 46.5
CHI@SEA

Pure internal median total 40.62 vs DK 46.5 (pace 25.71s) — reconciled to PASS per writeup agreement gate

58.6%50.0%8.6%59/100PASS — DO NOT BET
LAC@LA UNDER 45.5
LAC@LA

Pure internal median total 40.48 vs DK 45.5 (pace 28.12s) — reconciled to PASS per writeup agreement gate

58.1%51.1%7.0%58/100PASS — DO NOT BET
ATL@TB UNDER 44.5
ATL@TB

Pure internal median total 39.31 vs DK 44.5 (pace 26.28s) — reconciled to PASS per writeup agreement gate

57.5%50.4%7.0%57/100PASS — DO NOT BET
TEN@CIN OVER 46.5
TEN@CIN

Pure internal median total 50.29 vs DK 46.5 (pace 26.87s) — reconciled to PASS per writeup agreement gate

56.8%50.0%6.8%57/100PASS — DO NOT BET
MIN@DET UNDER 46.5
MIN@DET

Pure internal median total 39.54 vs DK 46.5 (pace 26.67s) — reconciled to PASS per writeup agreement gate

58.3%52.2%6.1%58/100PASS — DO NOT BET
NE@MIA OVER 43.5
NE@MIA

Pure internal median total 46.51 vs DK 43.5 (pace 27.27s) — reconciled to PASS per writeup agreement gate

55.2%49.6%5.6%55/100PASS — DO NOT BET
IND@JAX OVER 46.5
IND@JAX

Pure internal median total 49.36 vs DK 46.5 (pace 25.90s) — reconciled to PASS per writeup agreement gate

55.0%50.0%5.0%55/100PASS — DO NOT BET
CLE@PIT OVER 39.5
CLE@PIT

Pure internal median total 41.70 vs DK 39.5 (pace 26.87s) — reconciled to PASS per writeup agreement gate

53.0%48.9%4.1%53/100PASS — DO NOT BET
LV@NYJ UNDER 45.5
LV@NYJ

Pure internal median total 42.54 vs DK 45.5 (pace 27.27s) — reconciled to PASS per writeup agreement gate

53.5%50.0%3.5%54/100PASS — DO NOT BET
ARI@DAL UNDER 54.5
ARI@DAL

Pure internal median total 53.73 vs DK 54.5 (pace 25.90s) — reconciled to PASS per writeup agreement gate

50.4%49.6%0.9%50/100PASS — DO NOT BET