Edge Signals
Getting open, not yet getting paid.
We standardize a receiver's tracking signal (separation, YAC over expected, air-yards share) and compare it to actual PPR production. Underlying hotter than the box score = buy-low; output outrunning it = sell-high.
How we read it
- Underlying z
- Standardized tracking signal — separation, YAC over expected, air-yards share — across the qualified pool.
- Production z
- Standardized actual PPR production across the same pool.
- Gap
- Underlying z minus production z. Positive = buy-low (regression up); negative = sell-high (regression risk).
- Stab
- Stat Stability Grade: ● 10+ games, ◐ 6–9, ○ under 6. Sample-size only — thin samples are where edge signals mislead most.
Source window · Season 2024 · 40 rows · refreshed 2026-06-13 06:19 UTC
Buy-low · regression up
Underlying ahead of the box score
Tracking signal runs hotter than production. Ranked by the gap (underlying z minus production z).
20 rows
| # | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marvin MimsWR | DEN | 16 | ● | 8.1 | 10.2% | 5.21 | +2.78 | 9.1% | +1.69 | -0.64 | +2.33 |
| 2 | Greg DortchWR | ARI | 17 | ● | 5.3 | 9.7% | 3.69 | +2.51 | 5.8% | +0.57 | -1.34 | +1.92 |
| 3 | Troy FranklinWR | DEN | 16 | ● | 4.2 | 10.8% | 3.81 | +0.44 | 17.3% | +0.23 | -1.63 | +1.86 |
| 4 | Tucker KraftTE | GB | 17 | ● | 9.6 | 15.1% | 4.40 | +3.12 | 9.1% | +1.35 | -0.26 | +1.61 |
| 5 | Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR | DEN | 14 | ● | 4.6 | 10.0% | 3.36 | +1.54 | 7.1% | +0.04 | -1.53 | +1.57 |
| 6 | Curtis SamuelWR | BUF | 14 | ● | 4.6 | 10.9% | 4.06 | +0.09 | 5.1% | -0.19 | -1.54 | +1.35 |
| 7 | Isaiah LikelyTE | BAL | 15 | ● | 8.2 | 13.3% | 4.32 | +1.32 | 11.9% | +0.69 | -0.60 | +1.29 |
| 8 | Jordan AkinsTE | CLE | 16 | ● | 5.7 | 9.9% | 4.02 | +0.41 | 7.1% | -0.01 | -1.25 | +1.24 |
| 9 | Chigoziem OkonkwoTE | TEN | 16 | ● | 7.1 | 14.1% | 4.06 | +1.01 | 9.8% | +0.34 | -0.89 | +1.24 |
| 10 | Austin HooperTE | NE | 17 | ● | 6.4 | 12.2% | 3.50 | +1.27 | 10.8% | +0.15 | -1.07 | +1.22 |
| 11 | Dontayvion WicksWR | GB | 17 | ● | 6.5 | 16.5% | 2.97 | +1.11 | 22.0% | +0.17 | -1.04 | +1.21 |
| 12 | Noah FantTE | SEA | 14 | ● | 7.4 | 14.5% | 4.19 | +0.67 | 8.7% | +0.25 | -0.81 | +1.06 |
| 13 | Keon ColemanWR | BUF | 13 | ● | 8.6 | 15.5% | 2.02 | +3.53 | 21.6% | +0.55 | -0.52 | +1.06 |
| 14 | Noah GrayTE | KC | 16 | ● | 7.1 | 9.2% | 4.39 | +0.13 | 8.7% | +0.15 | -0.90 | +1.05 |
| 15 | Adonai MitchellWR | IND | 17 | ● | 3.2 | 11.2% | 2.63 | -0.39 | 15.8% | -0.84 | -1.89 | +1.05 |
| 16 | Colby ParkinsonTE | LA | 15 | ● | 4.4 | 10.4% | 3.72 | -0.57 | 6.9% | -0.58 | -1.58 | +1.01 |
| 17 | Tyler BoydWR | TEN | 15 | ● | 5.2 | 12.6% | 2.77 | +1.13 | 9.9% | -0.36 | -1.37 | +1.00 |
| 18 | Kavontae TurpinWR | DAL | 15 | ● | 6.9 | 9.2% | 3.37 | +1.30 | 9.9% | +0.06 | -0.93 | +0.99 |
| 19 | Kyle PittsTE | ATL | 17 | ● | 7.7 | 13.9% | 3.48 | +1.23 | 14.2% | +0.24 | -0.74 | +0.98 |
| 20 | Calvin AustinWR | PIT | 17 | ● | 7.1 | 13.1% | 2.96 | +1.04 | 20.7% | +0.09 | -0.89 | +0.98 |
Sell-high · regression risk
Production ahead of the underlying
Output is outrunning the tracking signal. Ranked by the most negative gap.
20 rows
| # | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR | CIN | 17 | ● | 23.7 | 27.2% | 3.03 | +2.33 | 33.2% | +1.07 | +3.30 | -2.23 |
| 2 | Tee HigginsWR | CIN | 12 | ● | 18.5 | 26.1% | 2.37 | +1.18 | 24.6% | -0.07 | +1.99 | -2.06 |
| 3 | Chris GodwinWR | TB | 7 | ◐ | 19.7 | 28.2% | 3.23 | +2.28 | 9.0% | +0.33 | +2.29 | -1.96 |
| 4 | Stefon DiggsWR | HOU | 8 | ◐ | 15.2 | 24.4% | 3.02 | +0.16 | 12.3% | -0.51 | +1.16 | -1.68 |
| 5 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR | DET | 17 | ● | 18.6 | 26.7% | 3.09 | +0.50 | 31.9% | +0.34 | +2.01 | -1.67 |
| 6 | Nico CollinsWR | HOU | 12 | ● | 17.6 | 24.5% | 3.08 | +0.57 | 24.9% | +0.12 | +1.75 | -1.63 |
| 7 | Puka NacuaWR | LA | 11 | ● | 18.8 | 32.5% | 3.32 | +1.49 | 20.0% | +0.45 | +2.06 | -1.61 |
| 8 | Mike EvansWR | TB | 14 | ● | 17.2 | 25.0% | 2.49 | +0.77 | 34.1% | +0.17 | +1.65 | -1.48 |
| 9 | Justin JeffersonWR | MIN | 17 | ● | 18.7 | 30.1% | 3.08 | +0.54 | 37.9% | +0.56 | +2.03 | -1.47 |
| 10 | Adam ThielenWR | CAR | 10 | ● | 13.9 | 20.4% | 3.00 | -0.18 | 16.2% | -0.52 | +0.84 | -1.36 |
| 11 | Malik NabersWR | NYG | 15 | ● | 18.2 | 35.7% | 2.81 | +0.75 | 40.9% | +0.59 | +1.92 | -1.33 |
| 12 | DeVonta SmithWR | PHI | 13 | ● | 15.3 | 28.0% | 2.96 | +0.27 | 25.6% | -0.05 | +1.19 | -1.23 |
| 13 | Drake LondonWR | ATL | 17 | ● | 16.5 | 28.2% | 2.42 | +0.75 | 38.2% | +0.27 | +1.49 | -1.22 |
| 14 | Cooper KuppWR | LA | 12 | ● | 14.6 | 24.9% | 3.26 | +0.24 | 19.2% | -0.10 | +1.00 | -1.10 |
| 15 | Davante AdamsWR | NYJ | 14 | ● | 17.2 | 29.6% | 3.25 | +1.02 | 31.0% | +0.61 | +1.67 | -1.06 |
| 16 | CeeDee LambWR | DAL | 15 | ● | 17.6 | 28.2% | 2.89 | +2.21 | 26.1% | +0.69 | +1.75 | -1.06 |
| 17 | Jauan JenningsWR | SF | 15 | ● | 14.0 | 25.2% | 2.49 | +0.50 | 26.8% | -0.18 | +0.86 | -1.04 |
| 18 | Jakobi MeyersWR | LV | 15 | ● | 14.5 | 25.2% | 2.73 | +0.17 | 30.9% | -0.03 | +0.99 | -1.02 |
| 19 | David NjokuTE | CLE | 11 | ● | 13.5 | 22.7% | 3.10 | +0.80 | 10.4% | -0.28 | +0.72 | -1.01 |
| 20 | Courtland SuttonWR | DEN | 16 | ● | 15.0 | 25.9% | 2.47 | -0.08 | 43.9% | +0.17 | +1.11 | -0.93 |
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