Issue 002 · 8/5/2026
Selective edge: coverage is the product
Full-slate hero rates are a trap. Selective conformal gates, props volume, and why silence beats a forced fire.
Math in one line
Fire on calibrated edge e = p − q with a conformal lower bound above vig — never on confidence alone.
Market blend test
If the model coefficient on market logits is indistinguishable from zero, the correct product action is zero fires — not a confident narrative.
What you can practice now
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