NFL · usage pulse

Real NFL rows before real claims.

This pulse reads nflverse player-week and roster releases directly. It shows usage, target share, air-yard share, WOPR, and quarterback-age context from real source rows. It does not publish picks, projections, or significant trends.

JSON pulse Trend Lab

Usage pulse

Season 2025, week 18

REG

Source rows: 140,853
Season rows: 6,095
Week rows: 355
Publish: blocked

Boundary

This pulse reads real nflverse rows directly. It is not a published betting pick or statistically significant trend until persisted joins and tests clear.

Player usage

Top opportunity rows

Sorted by carries plus targets for the latest regular-season week in the source file.

Top NFL player opportunity rows for the latest regular-season week: targets, carries, target and air-yard shares, WOPR, PPR points, and age
Player	Opp	Oppty	Tgt	Car	Tgt share	Air share	WOPR	PPR	Age
Ashton Jeanty RB	KC	31	5	26	19.2%	-6.6%	0.24	12.4	22
Bucky Irving RB	CAR	28	2	26	9.1%	2.1%	0.15	10.8	23
Tyrone Tracy Jr. RB	DAL	27	9	18	28.1%	8.2%	0.48	27.9	26
Audric Estimé RB	ATL	26	5	21	14.7%	3.2%	0.24	15.6	22
Jahmyr Gibbs RB	CHI	24	5	19	13.9%	0.4%	0.21	20.3	23
Ray Davis RB	NYJ	23	2	21	7.1%	-3.0%	0.09	25.4	26
Zach Charbonnet RB	SF	21	4	17	15.4%	5.6%	0.27	18.7	24
Derrick Henry RB	PIT	21	1	20	5.9%	-4.5%	0.06	12.6	32
Kenneth Walker III RB	SF	20	4	16	15.4%	-11.1%	0.15	17.3	25
Chase Brown RB	CLE	19	6	13	15.8%	-2.1%	0.22	19.0	25
Jaylen Warren RB	BAL	19	5	14	11.4%	-7.1%	0.12	14.9	27
Emanuel Wilson RB	MIN	19	1	18	10.0%	-22.2%	-0.01	5.8	26
RJ Harvey RB	LAC	19	4	15	17.4%	-19.2%	0.13	4.3	24
Bijan Robinson RB	NO	18	3	15	10.0%	-7.7%	0.10	7.3	23
Tank Bigsby RB	WAS	17	1	16	2.9%	0.3%	0.05	17.6	23
Chris Rodriguez Jr. RB	PHI	17	1	16	5.3%	0.8%	0.08	15.3	26
Kyren Williams RB	ARI	17	5	12	13.5%	5.0%	0.24	11.1	25
Tony Pollard RB	JAX	17	3	14	9.1%	-7.9%	0.08	9.5	28
Jaydon Blue RB	NYG	16	0	16	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	12.4	21
Brashard Smith RB	LV	16	4	12	13.3%	-7.6%	0.15	7.8	22
Jonathan Taylor RB	HOU	16	2	14	6.1%	0.3%	0.09	5.9	26
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR	CHI	15	15	0	41.7%	58.0%	1.03	24.9	26
Ty Johnson RB	NYJ	15	2	13	7.1%	2.0%	0.12	19.6	28
Christian McCaffrey RB	SEA	15	7	8	25.9%	17.1%	0.51	11.7	29

QB age context

The Jeff Manns-style question starts here.

This table does not claim a trend. It simply exposes real quarterback age, pass attempts, and running back target share for the latest week so the cohort engine has readable source material.

Latest-week quarterback age context by team: age bucket, pass attempts, running back targets, and RB target share
Team	QB	Age bucket	Attempts	RB targets	RB target share

Historical cohort result

QB age 34+ to RB target share

JSON

Cohort n

1,979

Field n

10,511

Lift

+7.8%

p-value

3.58e-9

The result uses 12,490 team-week observations from 1999-2024. It measures running back targets divided by team pass attempts, grouped by the starting quarterback's age on game day.

Scoring boundary

This is a read-only research result from public nflverse files. It is not a betting pick and does not affect live scoring until persisted joins, backtests, and model-version review clear.

QB-age cohorts versus the field: sample sizes, RB target share means, lift, p-value, and significance gate
Cohort	n	RB tgt share	Field	Delta	p-value	Gate
QB age 34+	1,979	17.6%	16.3%	+7.8%	3.58e-9	significant
QB age under 30	7,909	16.3%	17.0%	-3.9%	2.59e-5	significant
QB age 30-33	2,602	16.5%	16.6%	-0.6%	0.616	watch

Cohort examples

Recent 34+ QB team weeks

p-value

0.563

The test compares RB/WR/TE game opportunities against each player's prior four-game average. Across 1999-2024, birthday windows and 50-game career milestones both fail the significance gate.

Narrative boundary

The birthday-window and career-milestone cohorts do not clear the significance gate. The product must reject them as scoring inputs instead of turning anecdotes into picks.

Birthday and milestone usage checks versus each player's baseline: sample sizes, means, deltas, p-values, and gate outcome
Check	n	Field n	Mean	Delta	p-value	Gate
Window +/-3 days, prior avg 2+	1,517	77,879	-0.11 opp	+0.01 opp	0.901	rejected
Window +/-3 days, prior avg 5+	888	45,902	-0.59 opp	-0.10 opp	0.563	rejected
Relative lift, prior avg 5+	888	45,902	-4.8%	-1.8%	0.318	rejected
Every 25th career game	1,640	45,150	-0.48 opp	+0.02 opp	0.904	rejected
Career game 50/100/150+	640	46,150	-0.72 opp	-0.23 opp	0.260	rejected
Relative lift, every 50th game	640	46,150	-5.3%	-2.3%	0.242	rejected
RB birthday window	381	21,312	-0.61 opp	-0.15 opp	0.645	rejected
WR birthday window	415	19,829	-0.59 opp	-0.10 opp	0.551	rejected
TE birthday window	92	4,761	-0.53 opp	+0.16 opp	0.644	rejected

Source URLs

Player stats

https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/player_stats/player_stats.csv.gz

Rosters

https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/rosters/roster_2025.csv